交运物流行业2026投资策略：厚积薄发

Macro Environment Summary - The nominal GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, higher than 2024 but lower than 2023, with a decline from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.7% in Q3 [8][9] - The GDP deflator index has decreased to -1.08%, indicating deflationary pressures [8] - Non-manufacturing business expectations are stronger than manufacturing, with manufacturing PMI remaining below 50% for most months in 2025 [12][14] - Employment stability in manufacturing is better than in non-manufacturing, with manufacturing PMI for employment remaining stable [17][19] - Consumer confidence regarding employment has shown fluctuations, with a general upward trend in 2025 [21][23] - Retail sales growth has declined significantly, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% [27][29] - Real estate investment has seen a cumulative decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, with expectations of negative growth for four consecutive years [33][34] - Net exports have contributed positively to GDP growth, with total exports of 2.44 trillion yuan and imports of 1.67 trillion yuan from January to November 2025 [39][40] Express Delivery Industry - The growth rate of express delivery volume has significantly decreased from 22.4% in January-February 2025 to 5% in November, attributed to declining consumer demand and competition from instant retail [47][53] - Price changes in express delivery have led to a clear differentiation in demand, with rising costs affecting low-margin products and order-filling activities [57][61] - Different express companies have shown varying trends in volume growth and revenue per package, with Yunda experiencing negative volume growth but higher revenue per package compared to YTO [61][65] Aviation and Airport Industry - The number of civil transport airports in China is expected to reach 270 by the end of 2025, with significant progress in airport construction projects [75][77] - The fleet of major airlines has seen growth, with wide-body and narrow-body aircraft increasing by 8.9% and 13.3% respectively since the end of 2019 [81][82] - Domestic flight capacity has been adjusted, with a 1.8% decrease in weekly domestic flights for the winter-spring season of 2025 compared to the previous year [86][90] - Airlines are focusing on international routes, with a 17.3% increase in international flights compared to the previous year [90] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class has decreased by 6% year-on-year, reflecting a strategy to maintain passenger load factors [102][110] - The low oil prices and the appreciation of the RMB are expected to enhance profits for major airlines, with estimated profit increases ranging from 20.4 billion to 50 billion yuan depending on the airline [128]