GreatStar(SZ:002444) Changjiang Securities·2026-01-07 14:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company, Juxing Technology, forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.419 to 2.764 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% to 20%. The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 2.309 to 2.654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% to 15.2% [2][6]. - The revenue for the year is expected to remain flat year-on-year, supported by new production capacities in Vietnam and Thailand, as well as significant growth in electric tool products. The company’s high level of internationalization and product innovation efficiency has reduced the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on profitability, while direct sales through cross-border e-commerce and increased sales of new products have effectively improved gross margins. Looking ahead to 2026, the inventory cycle and new product cycle are expected to resonate, with a high likelihood of an upward trend in the U.S. real estate and consumer cycles, indicating a return to faster growth for the company [2][6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 264 to 609 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -28.40% to 65.46%, and a median of 436 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 18.53%. The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 273 to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -26.38% to 66.69%, and a median of 446 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 20.16% [6][12]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 2.592 billion yuan in 2025, 3.101 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.720 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times respectively [12]. Market Dynamics - The company has seen a recent increase in new orders, which is expected to gradually reflect in revenue. Despite some negative impacts from tariffs on domestic production capacity, overseas production capacity has returned to normal post-Q2, and the additional tariff costs have raised average industry prices, leading to a decline in industry sales [12]. - The electric tool segment is expected to see significant growth, becoming an important growth driver for the company. The company is continuously expanding its product categories and areas, with new products expected to gradually contribute to revenue growth [12]. Industry Outlook - As of January 2, 2026, the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.15%, down from 6.18%, which is expected to further stimulate housing demand and promote steady growth in home sales. The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of a rebound in the U.S. real estate and consumer cycles [12].