1月债市，抢占先机

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The state of the fundamental and capital markets determines the underlying tone of the bond market. The focus of the game remains the intensification of "loose monetary policy" and its specific implementation forms. In January 2026, the situation is neutral to optimistic. The primary issuance pressure of government bonds is controllable. The regulatory scale for non-banks is marginally relaxed, which is beneficial for the stability of the liabilities of public bond funds. The capital market may face potential seasonal pressure, but there is a high probability of additional central bank injections. The allocation demand at the beginning of the year can lock in the upper limit of interest rates. The coupons and spreads of the medium and long - term ends of interest - rate bonds are highly cost - effective, and the bond market may start a bullish trend [2][29][61]. Summary by Directory 1. December Bond Market: A Glimmer of Warmth Amidst the Cold - In December, the long - end interest rate showed an "up - down - up" N - shaped trend. The 10 - year Treasury yield reached a high of 1.87% at the beginning of the month and a second - high of 1.86% at the end of the month, and dropped to 1.83% in the middle of the month. The bond market mainly traded on four themes: the central government's policy orientation for the following year, the possibility of short - term intensification of the central bank's "loose monetary policy", the supply ratio of ultra - long government bonds, and the year - end ranking competition among institutions [1][13]. - Compared with October - November, in December, the capital interest rate was more stable and lower, and the bond market sentiment became more positive, shifting from completely ignoring the possibility of "loose monetary policy" to attempting to play the game [17]. - Regarding various bond market varieties, the issuance price of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased at the beginning of the month and decreased in the second half of the month. The interest - rate bond curve steepened significantly, with the yield of 30 - year Treasury bonds rising by 8bp. The credit bond market's development slowed down marginally, and only some over - adjusted varieties in November had a rebound [23][24]. 2. Learning from History: Fundamental and Capital Markets as Key References for the Bond Market in Early January - In the past five years, the movement of long - end interest rates in January has been inconsistent. When the economic fundamentals were good at the beginning of the year and the capital market gradually tightened, bond yields increased, as seen in 2021, 2023, and 2025. When the fundamental data was below expectations and the monetary policy was proactive, it was beneficial for the bond market, as in 2022 and 2024 [27]. - Looking forward to January 2026, in addition to the fundamental and capital market conditions, non - seasonal pricing factors also need to be considered, including the supply rhythm of government bonds, regulatory changes in bond fund redemption fees, policy directions, and institutional behaviors [29]. 3. Four Key Concerns for the Bond Market in January Supply Rhythm - The net supply pressure of government bonds in January is about 1.3 trillion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter is about 4.00 - 4.12 trillion yuan, with a "V" - shaped monthly distribution [3][36]. - The sentiment towards ultra - long - term bonds may be cautious in the first half of January and may recover in the second half as bond issuance progresses. The specific term structure of government bond supply in the first quarter still needs observation [37]. Regulatory Changes - The constraints on bond fund redemption fees have been relaxed. The new regulations may have three regulatory intentions: stabilizing market pricing, weakening the liquidity management attribute of bond funds, and emphasizing fairness to investors. The issue of customized bond funds may continue to be the focus of rectification [4][41]. - After the new regulations were officially announced, the concerns of investors eased. In early January 2026, the bond market may achieve a good start, with interest - rate pricing potentially self - repairing and the possibility of an inflow of institutional incremental funds [41]. Policy Direction - In January, the capital market faces more disturbances than in December, including large - scale tax payments, Spring Festival cash - withdrawal demand, a credit boom, and proactive fiscal policies. The capital interest rate has an inherent upward momentum, and the inter - bank market's dependence on central bank injections will increase [6][42]. - There are two options for the central bank's monetary policy: "strong action" (possibly a reserve requirement ratio cut if the Q4 economic performance is significantly below expectations) and "weak action" (increasing the net injection of basic tools if the December data rebounds and the recovery continues into January) [48][49]. Institutional Behavior - Allocation - driven investors may be the key force in determining interest - rate pricing at the beginning of 2026. Banks and insurance companies' self - operated investments are evaluated annually, and the beginning of the year is an important allocation period. At present, the trading - driven investors' influence on the interest - rate center has weakened and they tend to follow the allocation - driven investors [7][51]. - For insurance companies, a 30 - year Treasury yield of 2.30% may be an important allocation point. For large banks, a 1.85% coupon rate on 7 - 10 - year Treasury bonds is acceptable when the spread is cost - effective [52][57]. 4. January Strategy: Seize the Opportunity - In general, the situation in January is neutral to optimistic. However, at the beginning of 2026, the bond market adjusted sharply. The direct reason may be the learning effect from the 2025 bond market adjustment, and the fundamental reason is the lack of significant profit - making effects in the bond market [61][62]. - The bond market is gradually entering a state where inter - bank market funds are relatively abundant and the duration of trading - type institutional portfolios is low. The coupons and spreads of the medium and long - term ends of interest - rate bonds are highly cost - effective. It is advisable to wait for allocation - driven investors to enter the market first, followed by trading - driven investors. In January, it may be a good time to seize opportunities. Short - term significantly adjusted varieties such as 5 - 10 - year Treasury bonds and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds have trading value. When the 10 - year Treasury yield is above 1.85%, it may be a relatively safe replenishment window. For ultra - long - term bonds, it is advisable to wait until the end of the month when the supply term structure is clear [69][70].