东吴证券晨会纪要2026-01-08-20260108

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the "government debt increment" in Q1 2026 is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of no less than 3%, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy approach despite being lower than the 104% growth in Q1 2025 and higher than the -33% in Q1 2024 [1][7][8] Fixed Income - The report discusses the current status of urban investment bonds in Fujian Province, highlighting that the supply side will continue to face high-pressure regulatory conditions to consolidate existing debt reduction achievements. This suggests that the "asset shortage" situation is likely to persist, with low interest rates maintained to ensure debt cost reduction [2][9] - Fujian Province is characterized by strong local financial resources and a smooth debt reduction process, allowing for a duration extension to over 3 years for investment strategies. The report recommends focusing on traditional urban investment platforms while selectively moving down to county-level platforms due to their safety margins from the debt reduction process [2][10] Industry Recommendations - Guangfa Securities plans to raise approximately 39.59 billion HKD through the placement of H shares and 21.5 billion HKD through zero-interest convertible bonds to support its international business expansion. The expected net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 148/172/196 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 53%/16%/15% [3][12][14] - Zhihui AI, a leading independent general model developer, is projected to achieve revenues of 7.9 billion CNY (up 151%), 15.5 billion CNY (up 97%), and 32.2 billion CNY (up 108%) from 2025 to 2027. The company is expected to transition from localized to cloud-based services, with an overall gross margin reaching 50% in 2025 [4][15][16] - Aotewei has successfully delivered optical detection equipment to a leading domestic optical communication company, with expectations of continued growth in net profits of 6.8/6.1/6.4 billion CNY for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [5][17][18]