格林大华期货早盘提示-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "downward" rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is facing significant uncertainties and challenges. The US's political and economic policies, along with the development of AI and the performance of financial markets, all contribute to an overall downward trend in the global economy [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Information in the Morning Session - Musk states that once Starship achieves full and rapid reuse, launch costs will drop below $100 per kilogram, and a 100GW - level "space solar AI satellite array" can be built through 10,000 flights per year to send 1 million tons of payload into orbit [1] - Musk believes the future bottleneck of AI lies in electricity, not chips. The lack of power, heat dissipation, and liquid - cooling may prevent GPUs from working, which is why TSMC is worried about over - expansion [1] - Musk predicts that the next three to seven years will be an extremely turbulent transition period. AI will rapidly replace many white - collar jobs, causing unemployment and social unrest, while at the same time, production efficiency will be fully released, leading to an abundance of goods and services [1] - J.P. Morgan Asset Management warns that the prosperity of the US stock market is dominated by generative AI, and trillions of capital expenditures face uncertainties in profit returns and US power infrastructure bottlenecks. If expectations are not met, the market will face a severe liquidation risk [1] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is approaching the 2000 bubble peak, and the top ten stocks account for 41% of the market value. This "high valuation + extreme concentration" combination is similar to that before previous market crashes [1] - Since April, the US dollar has been flat while the commodity index has risen significantly. Goldman Sachs' Privorotsky believes this may indicate either a full - scale depreciation of the US dollar or a rapid recovery of the global economy [1] - Citigroup points out that the copper price may rise to $14,000 per ton in the next three months but may peak this month without new catalysts, which could balance the global copper spot market in 2026 [1] - Global investors' confidence in emerging market bonds has reached a 13 - year high, with the risk premium relative to US bonds narrowing to about 2.5 percentage points, the lowest since early 2013 [1] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The US's actions against Venezuela's president bring great uncertainty to the global economic and political order. Nomura expects the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarts the expansion of its balance sheet. Trump may fire Fed Chairman Powell [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenues is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US releases a new National Security Strategy, abandons global hegemony, and will adjust economic relations with China to revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation is intensifying, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raises interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rises to 2.0% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - J.P. Morgan strategists think the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, and economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [2] - Due to the US's continuous wrong policies, the global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline [2]