美国 2026 年经济展望：迎接双宽松

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows strong resilience despite unprecedented tariff and immigration policies under Trump 2.0, characterized by a balanced job market and moderate inflation[4] - The real GDP, excluding net exports and inventory changes, has been strengthening quarter by quarter, supported by personal consumption[18] Monetary Policy - Limited re-inflation pressure is expected, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates by approximately 50 basis points (BP) in Q2 2026[9] - The Fed has already reduced rates by 75 BP since September 2025, and the potential for further cuts is influenced by the weak balance in the job market[40] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise to 7% in FY 2026, primarily due to tax cuts and increased spending in military and homeland security[10] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates a deficit increase of about $277.3 billion, with $240.3 billion allocated for tax reductions for households and businesses[49] Economic Growth Drivers - Private consumption and AI-related investments are expected to be the main drivers of economic growth in 2026, with a gradual improvement anticipated throughout the year[11] - The "Great Beautiful Act" will provide tax refunds primarily in February and March, which will support consumer spending starting in Q2 2026[11] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected effects of tariff policies, deterioration in the job market, and uncertainty regarding the sustainability of AI investment growth[12]