Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content Core Views - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising due to Trump's consideration of using force to seize Greenland, leading to short - term volatility in the US dollar index [1][15] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is an increased willingness to go long on commodities. However, there are risks of short - term market fluctuations and precious metal corrections [2][12][13] - A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year, and the market has entered a bullish phase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [3][22][23] - The steel market is expected to continue its range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions [4][29][30] - The overall market sentiment for lithium carbonate is more sensitive to bullish information, and the price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [5][46][47] - Oil prices have fallen, with a decline in US API crude oil inventory but a significant increase in gasoline and diesel inventories [6][58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump and his team are discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and Fed official Milan expects data to support further interest rate cuts [11][12] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is increased enthusiasm for short - term market speculation. The probability of a January interest rate cut is low, and attention should be paid to the next Fed chair selection and the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weights [12] - It is recommended to be aware of the risk of precious metal corrections in the short term and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will support Ukraine if it is attacked by Russia again, and Trump warns of potential impeachment if he loses the mid - term elections. Trump is considering using the military to seize Greenland [14][15] - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising, and the US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [15] - It is expected that the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump's government is discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and there are differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate cuts [17][18][19] - Short - term geopolitical risks remain, and the market reaction is limited. Future Fed decisions will mainly depend on data trends [19] - It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate strongly, and a bullish approach should be maintained [20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year [21][22] - The market has entered a bullish phase, and trading volume is the key indicator. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 162 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan on the day [25] - The bond market is in a headwind situation, and it is recommended not to bet on oversold rebounds. Short - selling opportunities can be considered if there is a rebound [26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Handan lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [28] - Steel prices are expected to continue their range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions and potential pressure on finished product inventories [29] - A range - bound approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term [30] 2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable with a slight upward trend on January 6 [31] - Short - term coal prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to daily consumption and pre - holiday start - up changes [31] 2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' quarterly iron ore shipments reached a new high [31] - The iron ore price is expected to have strong short - term support but limited upside [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 31.12% from January 1 - 5, while production decreased by 34.48% [33][34] - There are preliminary signs of supply pressure relief, but there is still high uncertainty. It is recommended to lightly position long on the 05 contract in advance and add positions gradually after clear bullish signals [34] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Sugar production data from different regions in China shows a mixed picture, with overall weak demand [35][36][37] - The Zhengzhou sugar futures main contract is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - holiday stocking demand and sugar mill production and sales progress [38] 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $45.52 per ton [39] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see both for single - side and arbitrage strategies [39][40] 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $36.3 per ton, and Vedanta's fourth - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 8% year - on - year [41] - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions and to take partial profits on previous long positions [43][44] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The first batch of price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate in the new year has landed [45] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [46][47] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Ukraine will ban the export of metal scrap starting from 2026, and Codelco's 2025 copper production increased slightly [48][49] - Macro factors support copper price increases, but short - term fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to buy on dips for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Indonesian mining companies can produce 25% of their 2026 planned output in Q1 [52] - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for single - side trading and continue to hold previously recommended option strategies [54][55] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Tin) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $30.01 per ton [56] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops due to the fading of capital enthusiasm [57][58] 2.12 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased, but refined product inventories increased significantly [58] - Attention should be paid to geopolitical risk disturbances [60] 2.13 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 6, the CEA closing price was 74.63 yuan per ton [61] - The CEA price is expected to remain volatile [62]
综合晨报：特朗普考虑动用美军夺取格陵兰岛-20260107