兴业期货日度策略-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spring market in the financial and commodity futures markets is positive, with the A - share market strong, the stock index futures rising, and the commodity futures showing various trends such as continuous highs in non - ferrous metals and rebounds in chemicals [1][2] - Different investment strategies are recommended for various futures varieties based on their fundamentals and market conditions Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The spring market is strengthening, the stock market's money - making effect is increasing, and various funds are becoming more active. Policy and capital factors are driving upwards. The IC long positions should be continued to be held [2] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market is under pressure, especially long - term bonds. The strength of the equity market, policy orientation, and the central bank's cautious bond - buying scale contribute to the bearish sentiment [2] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Supply shortage expectations are increasing, and long positions in沪铜CU2602 should be held. The copper price is on a medium - to - long - term upward trend due to supply tightness and mine - end concerns [1][3][5] - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are rising, and alumina has a short - term upward trend. Although the alumina fundamentals show an oversupply pattern, low valuation and other factors support the price, while the aluminum price is supported by resource attributes and supply - demand gap expectations [5] - Nickel: The progress of solid - state battery industrialization boosts demand expectations. Although the current fundamentals are weak, a long - position mindset is advisable [5] Precious Metals - Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium: Geopolitical risks increase the safe - haven demand and resource attributes of precious metals. Long positions in黄金AU2604 and白银AG2603 should be held, and a long - position mindset is recommended for platinum, while new positions in palladium should be on hold for now [5] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical uncertainties and weak supply - demand fundamentals keep the oil price fluctuating in a low - level range [8] - Methanol: Tensions in Iran and production cuts may lead to a reduction in imports. If the post - Spring Festival maintenance increases, the upward space for methanol will expand [8] - Polyolefins: Although the fundamentals lack positive factors, supply reduction expectations and price differentials provide some support, and the price increase is expected to be limited [10] Building Materials and Minerals - Steel and Iron Ore: The macro - policy is positive, and the cost - support logic is strengthened. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are expected to be relatively strong in the near term [7] - Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke are rebounding from oversold levels. Attention should be paid to the progress of winter storage [8] - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash supply is increasing, and demand may decline, but it should not be overly bearish. Glass has high inventory and weak demand, but short - term price increases are possible due to policy expectations [8] Other Commodities - Lithium Carbonate: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The price is likely to rise before demand is falsified, but regulatory risks need to be watched [7] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has weak upward drivers, while polysilicon prices are expected to remain high and volatile [7] - Rubber: The supply pressure is relieved, and demand expectations are positive, so the rubber price has upward momentum [10] - Palm Oil: The supply - demand situation is average, and the price is mainly affected by related products, showing a volatile trend [10]