金信期货日刊-20260108

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES DAILY" - Report Date: January 8, 2026 - Report Author: GOLDTRUST FUTURES RESEARCH INSTITUTE Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - There are five reasons to be bullish on the glass main contract, including strong supply contraction, cost support, improved demand, clear technical rebound signals, and continuous policy dividends [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has had 14 consecutive positive days and is expected to break through 4100 points tomorrow, with positive capital inflows and a strong short - term trend [7] - The entire precious metal market is experiencing increased volatility, and caution is advised when participating in the gold market [10] - For iron ore, supply is expected to be loose with weak domestic demand support, but it has broken through the previous consolidation platform and a low - buying strategy is recommended [11][12] - For glass, the daily melting volume is decreasing, inventory has accumulated this week, and the main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. A low - buying strategy remains unchanged [14][15] - For methanol, international supply risks are rising, January imports are expected to decline, and short - term prices are expected to be slightly bullish [17] - For pulp, domestic pulp mills are operating normally, port inventories are fluctuating slightly, downstream demand is weak, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass 2605 Contract - Supply: Industry losses have led to capacity reduction. As of January 7, the daily melting volume of float glass has dropped to 151,500 tons, the lowest in history [3] - Cost: The current price is approaching the cash - flow cost range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the stable prices of core raw materials such as liquid caustic soda provide strong cost support [3] - Demand: In 2026, the decline in real estate completion has narrowed and turned positive. Infrastructure special bonds, green building materials policies, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics and automotive glass drive demand growth, and the export market is expanding [3] - Technical: The price has broken through the downward trend line, stood above the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD has formed a golden cross. The 4 - hour level shows a stable support and a bullish pattern [3] - Policy: "14th Five - Year Plan" infrastructure development, green building standard upgrades, and capacity replacement policies are expected to shift the industry from destocking to restocking, with a potential supply - demand gap after the second quarter and a strong expectation of improved industry prosperity [4] Technical Analysis of Various Futures - Stock Index Futures: The large - cycle trend is intact. After a strong adjustment, it is expected to continue to expand upward tomorrow. A low - buying strategy is recommended [6][7] - Gold: The precious metal market is volatile, and caution is needed when participating [10] - Iron Ore: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand support is weak, but it has broken through the previous consolidation platform, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [11][12] - Glass: The daily melting volume is decreasing, inventory has accumulated this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. A low - buying strategy remains unchanged [14][15] - Methanol: Port arrivals are delayed, most Iranian plants are shut down, and international geopolitical risks are rising. January imports are expected to decline, and short - term prices are expected to be slightly bullish [17] - Pulp: Domestic pulp mills are operating normally, port inventories are fluctuating slightly, downstream demand is weak, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [19]