格林期货早盘提示：瓶片-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically bottle chips) is "Oscillating Weak" [3] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips' main contract declined on Wednesday night, with the long - position and short - position both increasing. The supply of bottle chips increased slightly this week, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. Short - term bottle chip prices will fluctuate with raw materials, and the reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5980 - 6200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies [3] Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the main price of bottle chips dropped 34 yuan to 6022 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 6035 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6090 yuan/ton (+0). Long - position holdings increased by 1764 lots to 60,300 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 1760 lots to 62,500 lots [3] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, this week's domestic polyester bottle chip output was 335,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester bottle chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31; the production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5623 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton; the weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [3] - In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [3] - In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - The situation between the US and Venezuela has not intensified, and the market believes that Venezuela's production will increase in the long - term, causing international oil prices to decline. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract dropped 1.14 dollars/barrel to 55.99 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.74 dollars/barrel to 59.96 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.22%; the China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract dropped 2.5 to 424.8 yuan/ton, and dropped 9.3 to 415.5 yuan/ton in night trading [3] - According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5th, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, which has led to speculation about possible special operations in the region [3] Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuela's oil facilities were not affected. After the US "takes over", the medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. Short - term bottle chip prices will fluctuate with raw materials [3] Trading Strategy - Reduce long positions on rallies [3]