国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. - The market sentiment affects the rebar and hot - rolled coil plates, with their prices showing a strong - side oscillation [2]. - The market sentiment drives up the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and their prices are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [2]. - Due to event fermentation, coke and coking coal prices will oscillate at high levels [2]. - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data - The previous day's closing price of iron ore futures was 828.0 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton or 3.37%. The previous day's position was 666,581 lots, an increase of 25,713 lots [5]. - Imported ore prices increased, with the price of Carajás fines (65%) rising by 18.0 yuan/ton to 910.0 yuan/ton, and PB fines (61.5%) rising by 19.0 yuan/ton to 832.0 yuan/ton [5]. - Some domestic ore prices remained unchanged, such as Langna (66%) at 972.0 yuan/ton and Laiwu (65%) at 890.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The basis and spread of iron ore futures showed different degrees of change [5]. - Macro and Industry News - China's December RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line and slightly higher than November's 51.2, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [6]. - Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Plates - Fundamental Data - For rebar RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.87%, and the trading volume was 1,937,222 lots, with a position of 1,741,383 lots, an increase of 178,435 lots [9]. - For hot - rolled coil plate HC2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%, and the trading volume was 943,506 lots, with a position of 1,377,887 lots, an increase of 103,802 lots [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil plates in various regions increased, and the basis and spread of futures also changed [9]. - Macro and Industry News - In late December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a decrease of 27 million tons or 3.6% compared with the previous period [10]. - On December 31st, according to Steel Union's weekly data, the output of rebar increased by 3.83 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils increased by 10.97 million tons [11]. - Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil plates is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data - The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 70.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton [14]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [14]. - The basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different degrees of change [14]. - Macro and Industry News - According to Ferrous Metals Online, on January 6th, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions increased, and the procurement prices and quantities of some steel mills also changed [15]. - There was news about the possible implementation of differential electricity prices for restricted ferroalloy enterprises in Shaanxi from July 1, 2026 [16]. - Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data - The previous day's closing price of coking coal futures JM2605 was 1,164 yuan/ton, up 6.2%, and the closing price of coke futures J2605 was 1,773 yuan/ton, up 7.1% [18]. - Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained unchanged, and the basis and spread of futures changed [18]. - Macro and Industry News - On January 7th, CCI's metallurgical coal index showed that the prices of different types of coking coal remained stable [18]. - According to Mysteel's coal - coke data, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines increased, and the number of newly - shut - down and re - opened mines changed [18]. - Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [20]. Logs - Fundamental Data - The closing price, trading volume, and position of log futures contracts showed different degrees of change, and the price of log spot markets in various regions remained stable [22]. - The basis and spread of log futures also changed [22]. - Macro and Industry News - China's December RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line and slightly higher than November's 51.2, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [24]. - Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [24].