中泰期货晨会纪要-20260108

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market shows an upward - trending shock, and the stock index futures can consider following the trend. The government bond futures maintain the strategy of flattening the yield curve. [10][11] - The steel market is expected to rebound in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, while iron ore suggests holding short positions at high levels. The double - coking price may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, and the ferroalloy market is short - term recommended to wait and see. For soda ash, wait and see and try short positions at high levels after the positive feedback subsides; for glass, buy at low levels with caution in chasing high prices. [14][16][17] - For non - ferrous metals, zinc suggests waiting and seeing, and aggressive investors can short at high levels; lead also recommends waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly in the short - term; industrial silicon can focus on selling out - of - the - money call options at high levels, and be cautious in holding positions in polysilicon. [20][22][23] - In the agricultural products market, cotton can reduce long - positions and wait and see; sugar can conduct short - term trading in the low - value range; eggs' short - term contracts have limited upside space, and the far - month contracts have strong support below. The apple market may run strongly; corn will fluctuate strongly in the short - term; jujubes will run in a shock; and live pigs' futures should be short - biased at high levels. [28][30][31] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil will fluctuate without new event fermentation; fuel oil will follow the oil price; plastics should be treated with a shock mindset; rubber will run in a shock; synthetic rubber suggests waiting and seeing; methanol can consider long - biased allocation in the far - month contracts; caustic soda futures should follow the trend; asphalt's price fluctuation may increase; the polyester industry chain can consider PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads; LPG has limited support space; pulp and logs suggest waiting and seeing, and urea will run in a shock. [38][39][43] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China's foreign exchange reserves reach a ten - year high, and gold reserves increase for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2025, foreign exchange reserves are 3.3579 trillion US dollars, and gold reserves are 74.15 million ounces. [5] - Market regulatory authorities jointly issue regulations to address problems in live - streaming e - commerce and online trading platforms. [5] - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issue an implementation opinion on "AI + Manufacturing" aiming to lead the world in AI by 2027. [5] - The central bank conducts a 1.1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation to offset the maturity amount. [5] - Multiple departments hold a battery industry symposium focusing on anti - involution measures. [6] - xAI completes a 20 - billion - dollar E - round financing, with a valuation of 230 billion US dollars. [6] - Ukraine hopes to end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026. [6] - The US "small non - farm" shows a mild recovery in December 2025, and the ISM service PMI rises to the highest level since October 2024. [6][7] - The eurozone's CPI in December 2025 slows down to 2%, and the market expects the European Central Bank to remain inactive. [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts trading rules for silver and tin futures. [7] - Key coking enterprises plan to limit production and stabilize prices. [8] 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - A - shares rise in a shock, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 14 consecutive positive days. The strategy is to consider following the trend. [10] 3.2.2 Government Bond Futures - The capital market tightens, and the bond market weakens. The strategy is to maintain a flattening yield curve strategy. [11] 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Policy interference in the steel industry is low. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. Supply is stable, and inventory is relatively high. Steel is expected to rebound in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, and iron ore suggests holding short positions at high levels. [13][14] 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The double - coking price may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, affected by policies and winter storage expectations, but the upside space is limited due to the pressure on the steel industry chain. [16] 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The market is influenced by news disturbances. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and investors with small positions can expand the position - adding range. In the long - term, the trend is bearish. [17] 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Wait and see, and try short positions at high levels after the positive feedback subsides. Glass: Buy at low levels with caution in chasing high prices. [18][19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories increase. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high levels. The supply support weakens, and the demand is expected to weaken. [20][21] 3.4.2 Lead - Lead inventories are expected to rise. It is recommended to wait and see. In the short - term, lead prices may rise due to raw material shortages, but downstream demand may affect the price. [22] 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will fluctuate strongly, affected by mine disturbances and long - term demand, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. [23] 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options at high levels. Polysilicon: Be cautious in holding positions due to policy changes. [24] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Cotton prices may fall in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and wait and see. [28][29] 3.5.2 Sugar - The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic sugar is in a season of high supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - value range. [30][31] 3.5.3 Eggs - The short - term contracts are driven by the spot market but have limited upside space. The far - month contracts have strong support below. [31][32] 3.5.4 Apples - The market may run strongly. The sales area has a certain digestion pressure, and attention should be paid to price changes in the sales area. [33] 3.5.5 Corn - The short - term price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions after the New Year. [33][34] 3.5.6 Jujubes - The market will run in a shock, and attention should be paid to the sales area's sales rhythm and purchasing mentality. [34] 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The spot price may fall in the middle of January, and the futures should be short - biased at high levels. [34][35] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical trading ends, and the supply is in surplus. The oil price will fluctuate without new events. [38] 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price will follow the oil price, affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply is loose. [39] 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure is high, and the price may have a small - scale rebound but no strong upward drive. It should be treated with a shock mindset. [39][40] 3.6.4 Rubber - The price will run in a shock, with cost support. Attention should be paid to international situations and downstream procurement. [40] 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see. [41][42] 3.6.6 Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the long - term. The far - month contracts can consider long - biased allocation, but attention should be paid to inventory changes and price corrections. [43] 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The futures should follow the trend and maintain a short - term long - biased mindset, while the spot market is not optimistic. [44] 3.6.8 Asphalt - The price fluctuation may increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. [44][45] 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term price will follow the cost. Consider PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. Each product has different supply - demand and cost situations. [46][47] 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support but limited space, affected by supply and demand factors. [48] 3.6.11 Pulp - The spot market trading weakens, and the futures face hedging pressure. It is recommended to wait and see due to the multi - empty game. [49] 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weak, and the price will run in a shock. The spot market is relatively stable. [50] 3.6.13 Urea - The spot and futures markets will run in a shock, with the spot market trading weakening and the futures being slightly strong. [51]