原油：空单减仓止盈，关注伊朗问题等上行风险

Report Information - Report Date: January 8, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Huang Liunan - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0015892 - Email: huangliunan@gtht.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Reduce and take profit on short positions in crude oil, and pay attention to upside risks such as the Iran issue [1] Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra: Closed, price -$3.92/Bbl, affected by sulfur content adjustment and WTI MEH demand fluctuations [2] - Arab Light: Closed, price -$4.47/Bbl, due to narrowing refining margins in the US Gulf and increased Middle Eastern light crude supply [2] - Nemba: Closed, price -$3.7/Bbl, influenced by seasonal fluctuations in Brazilian crude exports and US Gulf refinery maintenance [2] - Agbami: Closed, price -$5.78/Bbl, due to unstable Nigerian crude quality and domestic US production suppressing import demand [2] - Forties: Closed, price -$8.03/Bbl, affected by North Sea oilfield production cuts and narrowing trans - Atlantic arbitrage windows [2] 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban: Open, price $1.84/Bbl, driven by strong demand for UAE light crude and OPEC+ production cuts [3] - Bonny Light: Closed, price -$24.13/Bbl, affected by Nigeria's domestic situation impacting export stability [3] - WTI MEH: Open, price $1.01/Bbl, due to narrowing price differences between the US Gulf and Europe and closing of the trans - Atlantic arbitrage window [3] 3. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties: Closed, price -$8.03/Bbl, due to Russian sanctions limiting North Sea crude supply and European refineries turning to the Middle East for procurement [4] - Dubai: Closed, price -$/, due to narrowing price differences between Middle Eastern benchmark crude and Brent, reducing cross - regional arbitrage opportunities [4] 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Urals vs. Saharan Blend: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$23.86/Bbl, due to the deep discount of Urals crude making other crude imports uneconomical [5] - Urals vs. Azeri Light: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$24.22/Bbl, due to the high premium of Azeri crude [5] - Urals vs. Bonny Light: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$24.38/Bbl, due to light crude premiums and freight costs [5] - Urals vs. Ekofisk: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$26.56/Bbl, due to unfavorable North Sea crude price structure [5] - Urals vs. Eagle Ford: Closed, arbitrage incentive -$24.54/Bbl, due to high long - distance transportation costs of US crude [5] 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Tapis: Affected by Asian demand recovery driving light crude premiums and tightening Middle Eastern supply [6] - ESPO: Due to Europe turning to Asia for procurement after the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a structural increase in ESPO crude demand [6] 6. Key Market News - PDVSA is negotiating with the US to sell crude oil [7] - The US is selectively lifting sanctions on Venezuela [8] - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending January 2 was 728,000 barrels, up from 543,000 barrels [9] - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 2 was - 3.832 million barrels, against an expected 447,000 barrels [10] - US Secretary of State Rubio outlined a three - stage process in Venezuela [10] - The US will continue to seize sanctioned oil tankers, and Trump is not afraid of escalating tensions with Russia [10] 7. Trend Intensity - Crude oil trend intensity: 0, with a range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, weakly bearish, neutral, weakly bullish, and strong [11]