螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡，热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡

Report Overview - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] - Report Title: "Rebar: Market sentiment disturbance, wide - range shock in the futures market; Hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment disturbance, wide - range shock in the futures market" [2][3] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets are affected by market sentiment, resulting in wide - range shocks in the futures market [2][3] Market Data Summary Futures Market - RB2605 closing price: 3,111 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%; trading volume: 841,618 lots, open interest: 1,562,948 lots, an increase of 14,597 lots [3] - HC2605 closing price: 3,263 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; trading volume: 439,684 lots, open interest: 1,274,085 lots, a decrease of 20,441 lots [3] Spot Market - Rebar: Shanghai price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,280 yuan/ton; Hangzhou price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,310 yuan/ton; Beijing price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,130 yuan/ton; Guangzhou price remained unchanged at 3,490 yuan/ton [3] - Hot - rolled coil: Shanghai price rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,260 yuan/ton; Hangzhou price rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton; Tianjin price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,160 yuan/ton; Guangzhou price remained unchanged at 3,250 yuan/ton; Tangshan billet price remained unchanged at 2,930 yuan/ton [3] Basis and Spread - RB2605 basis: 169 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; HC2605 basis: - 3 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread: - 29 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; HC2601 - HC2605 spread: 23 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; HC2601 - RB2601 spread: 158 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; HC2605 - RB2605 spread: 152 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; Spot coil - rebar spread: - 118 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [3] Macro and Industry News - December 31st Steel Union weekly data: Rebar production increased by 3.83 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 10.97 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 18.36 million tons; Rebar inventory decreased by 12.22 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.26 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 25.84 million tons; Rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 3.73 million tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 7.41 million tons [4] - In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.45 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.845 billion tons, a 1.3% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 16.81 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.681 billion tons, a 1.9% decrease in daily output; 18.03 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.803 billion tons, a 1.4% decrease in daily output. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.01 billion tons, a 8.6% increase compared to the previous ten - day period [5] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [5] - In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 billion tons, a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous period, showing a continuous downward trend [5] - In October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a 8.2% decrease compared to the previous month; the average price was 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a 1.9% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 billion tons, a 11.9% decrease compared to the same period last year [5] Trend Intensity - Rebar trend intensity: 0; Hot - rolled coil trend intensity: 0 [5]