Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics. The stock index continues to be strong, while the bond market is weak. In the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply and demand among various varieties. In the black metal and non - ferrous metal sectors, prices are affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and geopolitical events. The energy and chemical sector also shows price fluctuations due to geopolitical and supply - demand factors [19][23][26]. Summary by Related Categories Financial Derivatives 1. Stock Index Futures - Core Viewpoint: Fluctuations do not change the upward trend. The stock index continued to rise strongly on Tuesday, with all major indices hitting new highs. The market sentiment was high, and short - term stock indices still had upward momentum [19][20]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should adopt a strategy of buying on dips; for arbitrage, wait for the discount to widen for IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures - Core Viewpoint: With the increase in risk appetite, the bond market tends to be weak. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and short - term bond markets may continue to be weak, but the space for further adjustment is relatively limited [23]. - Trading Strategy: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [24]. Agricultural Products 1. Protein Meal - Core Viewpoint: Supply pressure still exists, and US soybeans continue to decline. International soybeans are under cost pressure, but due to the relatively low inventory of South American old crops, the decline in prices may be limited. Domestic soybeans may have some support on the spot side [26][27]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly based on range - bound operation; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM spread; for options, use a short straddle strategy [27]. 2. Sugar - Core Viewpoint: International sugar prices rose slightly, and domestic sugar prices were slightly stronger. International sugar prices may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and domestic sugar prices may also be slightly stronger, but there is still pressure at the upper shock platform [28][30]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - oscillate in the short term, and Zheng sugar is expected to be slightly stronger; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [31]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - Core Viewpoint: The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and oils have risen. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upside space is restricted. Geopolitical factors may have more emotional impact than real impact [33]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Oils will oscillate in the short term, and the idea for palm oil is to short at the upper edge of the range after a rebound; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - Core Viewpoint: US corn is weak, and the spot price of domestic corn is stable in the short term but still under pressure in the long term [35][37]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: For the outer 03 corn, buy on dips during the bottom - oscillation; for the 07 corn, adopt a strategy of buying on dips; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, wait and see [37]. 5. Live Hogs - Core Viewpoint: Supply pressure still exists, and the spot price oscillates. The overall inventory of live hogs is relatively high, and the supply pressure still exists, so the pig price is still under pressure [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should mainly be based on a short - selling strategy; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use a short straddle strategy [40]. 6. Peanuts - Core Viewpoint: Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. The spot price is stable, and the 03 peanut futures have a warehouse - receipt game, but the supply of oil - using peanuts is loose, so the futures price oscillates at the bottom [41][42]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: The 05 peanut futures will oscillate at the bottom, buy on dips but do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42]. 7. Eggs - Core Viewpoint: The demand is average, and the egg price rises steadily. In the short term, the near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month May contract can consider building long positions on dips [44][46]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: The February contract is expected to oscillate within a range, and consider building long positions on the far - month May contract; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [46]. 8. Apples - Core Viewpoint: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price oscillates at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, which supports the futures price. If the cold - storage apple delivery can maintain a normal level, the supply may be tight in the future [48][49]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Hold the long position of the May contract and short the October contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on May and short on October; for options, wait and see [50]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core Viewpoint: The expected planting area in the new year will decline, and the cotton price will oscillate strongly. The expected reduction in the planting area and strong sales progress support the cotton price, but there may be a short - term correction risk [51][52]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: US cotton is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and Zheng cotton will oscillate strongly; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [53]. Black Metals 1. Steel - Core Viewpoint: The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the steel price oscillates within a range. The steel market is affected by factors such as production resumption, inventory, demand, and policies. Although there is support in the short term, the upward space may be suppressed in the future [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should mainly be based on a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, wait and see [57]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - Core Viewpoint: They continue to oscillate widely. Affected by macro - sentiment and seasonal factors, the coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [59]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Do not chase the rise, and try to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [60]. 3. Iron Ore - Core Viewpoint: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the ore price oscillates. The global iron ore supply is loose, and the domestic terminal steel demand is declining, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [62]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: The price will oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [63]. 4. Ferroalloys - Core Viewpoint: With the expectation of marginal improvement in supply and demand and cost - push, they are short - term bullish. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be short - term bullish due to factors such as supply contraction expectations and cost support [63][64]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: They are short - term bullish; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Gold and Silver - Core Viewpoint: Geopolitical factors dominate, and they may oscillate strongly in the short term. Affected by geopolitical events and market sentiment, gold and silver prices are expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to short - term pressure [66][67]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Hold long positions of Shanghai gold and silver cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [67][68]. 2. Platinum and Palladium - Core Viewpoint: The sentiment of long - position funds is warming up, and they are back on the upward channel. Platinum is expected to be bullish due to tight supply - demand fundamentals, while palladium may be affected by the macro - environment and show a linkage with platinum [70][71]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Go long on platinum on dips based on the MA5 daily line, and wait and see on palladium; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [72]. 3. Copper - Core Viewpoint: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Supported by macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the copper price is in an upward trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips [74]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: The upward trend remains unchanged, and control the position to buy on dips; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [74]. 4. Alumina - Core Viewpoint: Driven by policy expectations, the alumina price rises. Market concerns about policies related to red mud treatment drive the price up, but the fundamentals change little [78]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: The price rises driven by policy expectations; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [79]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core Viewpoint: Shanghai aluminum is running strongly. Driven by factors such as global aluminum shortage expectations and geopolitical risks, the aluminum price is rising, and it is recommended to go long on dips [81]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Follow the trend, hold long positions and control the position; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [82]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core Viewpoint: It runs strongly following the sector. Affected by geopolitical risks and cost factors, the aluminum alloy price rises following the sector, but the trading volume is light [85]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: It runs strongly following the sector; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [85]. 7. Zinc - Core Viewpoint: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side, and the zinc price may run at a high level. The zinc market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is mainly affected by macro - factors and capital. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing the rise [87][89]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: It runs at a high level, and pay attention to the capital sentiment; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [89]. 8. Lead - Core Viewpoint: Pay attention to the changes in domestic social inventory. The lead market has a situation of short - supply and certain consumption resilience. Low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds, and the price may rise [92]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Buy on dips and pay attention to the impact of the capital side; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner [92]. 9. Nickel - Core Viewpoint: Speculation on resource products, and the nickel price returns to the financial attribute. The nickel price is in a large - scale upward trend, and the financial attribute is restored. It is recommended to follow the trend, but be vigilant against correction risks [93]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Adopt a bullish strategy and be vigilant against correction risks; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [94][96]. 10. Stainless Steel - Core Viewpoint: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. Affected by factors such as nickel ore quota contraction and tight hot - rolled resources, the stainless - steel price follows the nickel price, but the upward drive is weaker [97]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Follow the rise of the nickel price; for arbitrage, wait and see [98]. 11. Industrial Silicon - Core Viewpoint: It is short - term bullish and bearish in the medium - term. The industrial silicon market has a situation of high production and possible inventory accumulation, but it may rebound in the short term due to market sentiment. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [100][101]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: It is short - term bullish and short on rallies in the medium - term; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [102]. 12. Polysilicon - Core Viewpoint: The downstream price rises, the spot transaction center moves up, and it is bullish. Driven by the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry chain, the polysilicon price is expected to be bullish in the long - term, but be cautious in the short - term [103]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: It is bullish, but be cautious and pay attention to risk control; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; for options, sell put options [104]. 13. Lithium Carbonate - Core Viewpoint: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the price runs strongly. Although there may be inventory accumulation in January, the price is difficult to fall deeply due to the replenishment demand of upstream and downstream. The long - term trend is good [106]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Control the position and operate cautiously [107]. 14. Tin - Core Viewpoint: Driven by AI demand, the tin price rises with increasing positions. Affected by geopolitical events and AI demand, the tin price rises, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption realization [109][112]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Follow the logic of long - position funds to trade; for options, wait and see [112]. Shipping - Core Viewpoint: The spot price is peaking, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The container shipping market is in a situation of price game, and the demand is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the adjustment rhythm of shipping companies and geopolitical impacts [114]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be closed on rallies, and the remaining light positions can be held at discretion; for arbitrage, wait and see [114][116]. Energy and Chemicals 1. Crude Oil - Core Viewpoint: Geopolitical factors drive the price to fluctuate widely. Affected by the situation in Venezuela and other geopolitical factors, the crude - oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the Brent main - contract price range [118][119]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: It will fluctuate widely; for arbitrage, domestic gasoline is relatively strong, diesel is relatively weak, and the crude - oil monthly spread is strong; for options, wait and see [119]. 2. Asphalt - Core Viewpoint: The raw - material contradiction dominates, and the asphalt price oscillates at a high level. The asphalt market is affected by raw - material supply and demand. Although the demand is in the off - season, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [121][122]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: It will oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [122]. 3. Fuel Oil - Core Viewpoint: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the price fluctuation intensifies. Affected by the situation in Venezuela and other factors, the fuel - oil price fluctuates strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Venezuela [124][125]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: It is short - term bullish, but be vigilant against geopolitical risks and do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, pay attention to the FU59 positive spread opportunity, and both low - sulfur and high - sulfur cracking are weak; for options, wait and see [125][126]. 4. Natural Gas - Core Viewpoint: TTF/JKM oscillates at a low level, and HH searches for support downward. Affected by temperature and inventory factors, the natural - gas price is expected to decline in the long - term, and the short position of the third - quarter TTF contract can be held [127][128]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Hold the short position of the third - quarter TTF or JKM contract; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [129]. 5. LPG - Core Viewpoint: Supported by geopolitical premium. Affected by factors such as the rise in Saudi CP prices and geopolitical risks, the LPG price has support in the short - term, but it is under pressure in the long - term [130][131]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: Pay attention to the follow
银河期货每日早盘观察-20260107
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-07 01:54