宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026年1月7日）-20260107

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The price of rebar is expected to continue to fluctuate. Traders should focus on the support level of MA5 and the production situation of steel mills. The current situation is a game between expectations and reality, and the steel price is stabilizing in a fluctuating manner [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be fluctuating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly fluctuating. Traders are advised to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the steel price stabilizing in a fluctuating manner [2]. Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, leading to a collective rebound of ferrous metals. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills are continuously resuming production, increasing rebar output and weakening the positive effect of low supply. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators remaining at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved and will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. In summary, although the positive commodity sentiment has led to a rebound of rebar futures prices from low levels, the rebar fundamentals are weakly stable under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand. The steel price in the off - season is still under pressure, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [3].