能源化策略日报：委内瑞拉原油供应将逐步正常拖累油价，塑料反弹打开进?套利窗-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is disturbed by geopolitical risks, and the chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate. The Venezuelan situation affects the supply of crude oil, and the market prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends under multiple factors such as supply - demand, cost, and geopolitics [1][3]. - The trading logic of the chemical market is disturbed by multiple favorable factors, and the strength - weakness relationship between varieties has changed significantly. The rebound of polyolefins has opened the import arbitrage window for polyethylene, and the current rebound may overdraw the future maintenance benefits of the industry [2]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - View: Geopolitical factors continuously disturb, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The supply of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to gradually normalize, and the global crude oil supply pressure continues. However, geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors guiding the crude oil supply expectation. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of supply surplus and frequent geopolitical disturbances [1][8]. - Main Logic: EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week of January 2, and the weekly production estimate decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate remained high, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased seasonally. If the US - Venezuelan crude oil trade volume increases and sanctions are reduced, the supply of Venezuela may recover slightly this year [8]. - Outlook: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and it is regarded as short - term fluctuation [8]. Asphalt - View: The US is dealing with the sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter. Venezuela is expected to transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US. The interruption expectation of Venezuelan crude oil exports is gradually alleviated, and the asphalt raw material supply interruption expectation is also relieved. The asphalt cracking spread is under pressure. The asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly, and the inventory pressure is still large. The asphalt is overvalued compared with fuel oil [9]. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The Venezuelan situation is controllable, and the fuel oil futures price drops. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter, and the supply of heavy oil will surge. The energy crisis in Iraq may lead to the resumption of fuel - oil power generation. However, the high - sulfur fuel oil demand is suppressed by the high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and the demand for fuel - oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics [9]. - Outlook: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates and declines. - Main Logic: It is affected by the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage, and it is expected to face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand. Currently, the valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. - Outlook: It is affected by green fuel substitution and the lack of high - sulfur substitution demand space, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [11]. Methanol - View: The inventory accumulation along the coast slows down, and methanol is expected to be stable and slightly strong under the expectation of inventory reduction. - Main Logic: The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is rational. The port inventory is in an accumulation state, but the growth rate has slowed down, indicating that the reduction of imports is beneficial. However, the current MTO profit is not good, and the operation of some projects needs attention [29]. - Outlook: It is regarded as short - term stable and slightly strong [29]. Urea - View: The new order transactions push up the price close to the pressure level, and urea is regarded as fluctuating. - Main Logic: The supply side has high daily production and operation rate to meet previous orders. The demand side is cautious about high - price goods. The inventory is flat, and the sustainability of new order transactions near the price of 1800 yuan/ton needs attention [30]. - Outlook: It is regarded as short - term fluctuation [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - View: The general rise of the coal - chemical industry boosts the atmosphere, but the increase is limited due to fundamental pressure. - Main Logic: The coal price rises, and the coal - chemical industry is supported by cost. However, the ethylene glycol's own inventory accumulation cycle is difficult to reverse, so the rebound space is limited [21][22]. - Outlook: The short - term price will fluctuate within the range, and the long - term inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with an operation range of [3700 - 3900] [22]. PX - View: The sector sentiment is warm, and the downstream demand still has support, so it maintains range consolidation. - Main Logic: The international oil price is weak during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the overall rise of downstream PTA is strong, which limits the decline of PX. The supply - demand variables are limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range [13]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range, and the positive - spread logic is maintained [13]. PTA - View: The cost guidance is limited, but the enthusiastic sentiment of chemical products supports the price to be firm. - Main Logic: The international oil price is average during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the domestic chemical product sector sentiment is high. The demand is expected to weaken, but the overall sentiment is warm, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. The overall supply - demand is in a tight pattern, and the spot market will fluctuate within a range [14]. - Outlook: The price will fluctuate and consolidate with the cost. The TA05 contract can be bought on dips in the medium - term, and short - sold in the range of 5200 - 5300. The TA05 - 09 can be positively spread on dips [15]. Short - Fiber - View: The cost provides certain support, but the demand sustainability is insufficient, and the profit is under pressure. - Main Logic: The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate without a clear direction. The downstream demand is continuously insufficient, and some terminal enterprises may enter the holiday state after the middle of the month. The chemical product sentiment is warm, and the short - fiber price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [25][26]. - Outlook: The short - fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is slightly under pressure [26]. Bottle - Chip - View: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. - Main Logic: The commodity market rises as a whole, and the cost support is acceptable. However, the downstream terminal replenishment willingness is not high, which restricts the increase. It is expected that the market center of polyester bottle - chips will fluctuate and adjust [27]. - Outlook: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw material, and the support for the processing fee increases [27]. Propylene (PL) - View: There is an expectation of PDH maintenance, and PL rises slightly. - Main Logic: The expectation of PDH maintenance boosts the price. The enthusiasm of market participants has increased, and the enterprise inventory is low. The powder profit has been slightly repaired, but the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [36]. - Outlook: PL fluctuates in the short term [36]. PP - View: The coal price indirectly boosts, but the basis support is limited, and PP rises cautiously. - Main Logic: The oil price fluctuates, and the actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is uncertain. The coal price rebounds in the short term, which indirectly boosts PP. It is the off - season for PP downstream, and the trading volume has decreased after the futures price rebound. The short - term maintenance has increased [35]. - Outlook: PP fluctuates in the short term [35]. LLDPE - View: The downstream trading volume has decreased, and the upward space of LLDPE is limited. - Main Logic: The oil price fluctuates, and the supply of crude oil is disturbed in the short term. The futures price rebounds slightly under the repair of macro - expectations, but the spot is weak, and the basis is weak. It is the off - season for plastic demand, and the demand support is limited [34]. - Outlook: LLDPE fluctuates in the short term [34]. PVC - View: There are frequent supply disturbances, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - Main Logic: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. From a domestic perspective, the marginal device operation rate has increased slightly, and the profit repair may increase the supply elasticity. From an overseas perspective, some PVC production capacity has withdrawn from the market. The downstream is in the off - season, and the export orders are average [39]. - Outlook: Supported by factors such as "anti - involution", spring maintenance expectations, and overseas device disturbances, PVC runs strongly. If the sentiment fades, the adjustment pressure on the disk will increase [39]. Caustic Soda - View: The market sentiment is positive, and caustic soda is driven up. - Main Logic: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in the electricity cost of restricted - capacity caustic soda in Shaanxi boosts the market sentiment. The alumina marginal device profit is poor, and the demand for caustic soda has marginal support. The upstream production is stable, and the caustic soda cost is expected to increase [41]. - Outlook: The disk may fluctuate. The support comes from positive market sentiment and the expectation of cost increase, while the pressure comes from high inventory and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [41].