市场交易火热，双粕延续上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple agricultural products are in a state of price fluctuation. The overall supply of oilseeds is relatively loose, and the prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The prices of double - meal are also expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are expected to range - bound, and the pig market is expected to be volatile with a near - term weak and long - term strong trend. The prices of natural and synthetic rubber are expected to be bullish in the short - term and mid - term respectively. Cotton prices are expected to be bullish in the long - term, while sugar prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - and long - term. Pulp prices are expected to be bullish with fluctuations, and the prices of double - gum paper and logs are expected to be range - bound [1][5][8][11][13][16][18][19][20][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Oils and fats are fluctuating, with soybean oil being relatively strong. Attention should be paid to important reports [5]. - Logic: Soybean oil has a relatively strong trend, with a firm basis and increased spot trading. The impact of international geopolitical issues on crude oil prices is weakening, and the supply surplus has led to a decline in crude oil prices. The market expects a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, which will impact US soybean exports. The domestic soybean oil market should pay attention to the arrival and crushing of auctioned soybeans. Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but the export demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is uncertain. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decline in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong, while the supply is expected to increase in the long - term [5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider short - term buying hedging after an oversold situation [6]. 3.2. Protein Meal - Viewpoint: The market trading is hot, and double - meal continues to rise [1][8]. - Logic: Internationally, the weather in South America is generally favorable for crop growth, but the dry weather in central and southern Argentina is a concern. The market expects a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, and the US soybean exports are facing competition. Domestically, there is a situation of weak supply and demand before the festival. The oil mill's operating rate, meal sales, and pick - up volume have all decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream pig inventory has increased, but the breeding is in a loss, and the feed enterprises' inventory has also increased. There are uncertainties in rapeseed imports [8]. - Outlook: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to China's soybean import customs inspection policy [2][9]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - Viewpoint: The rotation of grain continues to be sold at a premium, and the futures have strengthened again [11]. - Logic: The fundamentals are generally stable. The premium transactions of corn acquisition and auction have ignited the market's bullish sentiment. The sales of grain in the Northeast are slow, and the arrival volume in the North China is decreasing. The downstream has established a certain safety inventory, and the production profit of deep - processing enterprises has shrunk. The launch of the policy - based grain source has a limited negative impact on corn [11]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is expected to fall first and then rise before the Spring Festival [11]. 3.4. Pig - Viewpoint: The slaughter rhythm slows down at the beginning of the month, and the spot price rebounds slightly [12]. - Logic: In the short - term, the slaughter volume in December was high, and the planned slaughter volume in January has decreased. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The consumption has weakened after the New Year's Day holiday, and the pig weight is higher than the same period last year [13]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be volatile. The near - term prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level, while the long - term prices are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [13]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The rubber price maintains a bullish trend [15]. - Logic: Driven by the overall strong sentiment in the commodity market, natural rubber has continued to rise. The rise is mainly driven by macro factors, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material prices are firm, but the demand is weak after the price increase [16]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited variables, but the capital sentiment is strong. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term [16]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: The upward logic remains unchanged, and the market is running strongly [17]. - Logic: The market generally expects the fundamentals of butadiene to improve. The absolute price of the BR market is low. The price of butadiene has been strong recently, which has boosted the market. Although the inventory has increased, the buying sentiment has been driven by the positive expectations [18]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the medium - term [18]. 3.7. Cotton - Viewpoint: It continues to rise with increasing positions [18]. - Logic: In the long - term, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue to rise, and the domestic market is expected to be stronger than the international market. The core drivers are the expected tight balance this year and the expected decrease in the planting area in 2026. The supply of US cotton is expected to be loose, and its rise will be indirectly driven by the domestic market [18]. - Outlook: It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the long - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [18]. 3.8. Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price is fluctuating, and there is still pressure in the future [19]. - Logic: Globally, the supply in the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be loose. In the domestic market, the sugar production is expected to increase. The overall supply situation at home and abroad remains unchanged, and the sugar price is expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to be range - bound with a downward trend in the medium - and long - term. A strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [19]. 3.9. Pulp - Viewpoint: It falls after reaching a high, and the pulp market continues to fluctuate [20]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. There are still some bullish factors, such as the increase in the US dollar price of broad - leaf pulp and the expected supply reduction of coniferous pulp. However, there are also bearish factors, such as the difficulty in cost transfer and the seasonal decline in demand. The market is currently driven by capital, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with an upward trend [20]. - Outlook: It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend. The bottom is supported by positive news, but there is pressure from hedging at the top [20][21]. 3.10. Double - Gum Paper - Viewpoint: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the double - gum paper market is fluctuating at a high level [21]. - Logic: The market sentiment has improved after the paper mill raised the price, and the futures market has been running strongly. The spot market has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The supply is expected to be stable in January, and the price is expected to be supported in the short - term. The price may be weak in February due to the Spring Festival holiday and is expected to be supported in March [22]. - Outlook: The price is expected to form a bottom, and it is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the short - term [22]. 3.11. Logs - Viewpoint: The market is warming up, and logs are strengthening following the black - goods sector [23]. - Logic: Driven by the overall strength of the commodity and black - goods sectors, the log futures have rebounded. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January and February. The futures price has support at a certain level, and the 03 contract has some trading opportunities [23]. - Outlook: The supply pressure will ease marginally in January and February, and the log market is expected to be range - bound [23].