PP：宏观情绪提振，基本面改善有限

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The improvement of PP fundamentals is limited despite the boost from macro - sentiment. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is weak, and the improvement range of PP fundamentals is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep - loss PDH profits [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 was 6486, with a daily increase of 0.98%. The trading volume was 595337, and the open interest decreased by 1191. The 05 - contract basis was - 206 (compared to - 203 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 54 (compared to - 36 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6250 yuan/ton, 6280 yuan/ton, and 6330 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market was strong, some hedging resources could not be unwound, the sales pressure on the spot side was moderate, and traders were generally inclined to hold prices. The demand at the end of the year was difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying was questionable, and the warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The PP US - dollar market price remained stable, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China was low, downstream buyers continued to make rigid - demand purchases, and the trading situation was difficult to improve [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Cost: The prices of crude oil and propane were strong. The chemical allocation in the market was differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins was continuously strengthened [2]. - Supply: There was no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensified [2]. - Demand: The follow - up of new orders from downstream was weakening, and downstream factories were still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2].