宁证期货今日早评-20260108

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities on January 8, 2026 [2] Group 2: Commodity - Specific Key Points Steel - On January 7, domestic steel markets mostly rose, with Tangshan steel billet price up 50 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and some steel mills raising rebar prices by 30 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm rebar increased by 28 yuan/ton. After the fourth round of coke price cuts at the beginning of the month and high - priced iron ore, steel costs slightly decreased, and some steel mills resumed production. With the rise of coke and iron ore futures, steel prices rebounded. Due to the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season, the rebound space may be limited, and prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, while domestic rubber factories faced losses. As of January 4, 2026, Chinese natural rubber social inventory increased, with dark - colored rubber up 3% and light - colored rubber up 1.3%. Most tire companies controlled production flexibly, with finished - product inventory rising and raw - material procurement being cautious. Technically, there was insufficient follow - up capital. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with strong pressure at 16,300 yuan/ton [3] Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 561,000 tons to 1.1583 million tons. Port inventory continued to rise, but with the recovery of steel mill profits and iron - water output, demand was supported, and steel mills continued to replenish inventory slightly. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the market expects marginal improvement in the short term, and prices may fluctuate strongly [5] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants increased by 0.3% to 35.4%, and the daily output of clean coal increased by 300 tons to 26,100 tons, while the inventory decreased by 94,000 tons to 319,700 tons. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, there may be few transactions before the festival, and prices are likely to fall after the festival, so it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.2%. The pig price in the north was stronger and stable in the south, with reduced supply in some northern weight segments supporting prices. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and short - term long positions are recommended, while focusing on farmers' slaughter volume and sow culling [6] Soybean Meal - On January 7, domestic soybean meal prices rose. Oil mills and traders were bullish, and some downstream companies increased long - term contract purchases. However, with the rapid recovery of oil - mill operations, inventory may accumulate, limiting price increases. Short - term participation is recommended, and prices will face pressure if import supply increases and demand does not improve [6] Palm Oil - MPOA data showed that December Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons. Indonesia may confiscate 5 million hectares of oil - palm plantations in 2026, causing market concerns. The short - term market sentiment is bullish, and short - term long positions are recommended, while paying attention to the impact of crude oil on palm oil [7] Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased, and daily output decreased slightly. The US reached an agreement with Venezuela to import up to $2 billion of crude oil, and international oil prices continued to fall. With frequent geopolitical conflicts and oversupply, short - term trading is advisable [8] PTA - Polyester inventory is still low. PTA is expected to accumulate inventory in Q1, and some polyester factories plan to reduce production. PX supply is relatively loose, and PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the long - term. Short - term observation is recommended [8] Copper - Workers at Mantoverde Copper Mine in Chile continued to strike, and the mine was almost completely shut down. Copper prices entered high - level consolidation after reaching new highs. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts, and the supply is worried, while high prices have suppressed consumption. Copper prices may not peak yet, but short - term volatility may increase [9] Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, production - enterprise inventory and orders increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The domestic methanol market was weak, and the port basis weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash rose, production decreased, and factory inventory decreased. The float - glass market was stable, with slightly decreased production and inventory. The domestic soda - ash market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] PVC - PVC prices rose, capacity utilization increased, and social inventory increased. Supply is abundant, but demand is weak both domestically and abroad, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [11] Silver - US employment data was weak, increasing economic pressure and negative factors for silver. The market expects no Fed interest - rate cut in January, and silver may follow gold in high - level fluctuations [12] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank conducted a 1.1 trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation, which was an equal - amount roll - over. Market expectations of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may be postponed. Short - term funds decreased, which is beneficial to the bond market, and the bond market's oscillation may increase [12] Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in January is 92%. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term. The interaction between gold and silver should be noted [13]