中国期货每日简报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - On January 7, equity index futures showed differentiated performance, CGB futures declined, and most commodities rose, with nickel, coke, coking coal, and stainless steel hitting the daily limit [2][9][12]. - The sharp rally in coking coal and coke was driven by both macro and industry - specific factors. The macro outlook warmed due to the PBOC's accommodative monetary policy stance, and the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke improved marginally [18][19][20]. - The significant increase in nickel prices was due to expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, low nickel valuation, and demand expectations from solid - state battery industrialization. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose with high inventories [28][29][31]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 0.5% while IF fell 0.4% [9][12]. - CGB futures: TL declined 0.44% and T dropped 0.08% [9][12]. - Commodity futures: Top three gainers were nickel (up 8.0% with 1.1% MoM increase in open interest), coke (up 8.0% with 4.6% MoM increase in open interest), and coking coal (up 8.0% with 2.3% MoM increase in open interest). Top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.6% with 12.7% MoM decrease in open interest), crude oil (down 2.6% with 4.3% MoM increase in open interest), and platinum (down 2.5% with 2.8% MoM decrease in open interest) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On January 7, coking coal rose 8.0% to 1,164 yuan per ton, and coke rose 8.0% to 1,773 yuan per ton. The rally was due to a warming macro outlook (PBOC's accommodative policy) and improved supply - demand structure (eased Mongolia coal imports and increasing pig iron output) [17][20][22]. 1.2.2 Nickel - On January 7, nickel rose 8.0% to 147,720 yuan per ton. The price increase on January 6 was driven by expectations of tighter Indonesian policies, non - ferrous sector sentiment, low valuation, and solid - state battery demand. Supply pressure lingers, demand is in the off - season, and inventories are high. Short - term strength is supported by policy and non - ferrous sentiment, and investors are advised to buy on dips and monitor Indonesian policy rollout [28][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Two ministries issued regulations stating that online trading platform operators shall not mandate or disguisedly mandate merchants to sell goods/services below cost. They also cannot impose unreasonable restrictions on merchants' independent operations [33][35]. - The PBOC increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month. China's gold reserves at the end of December were 74.15 million ounces (approx. 2,306.323 tons), up 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) MoM [34][35].