中信期货晨报：国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，基本金属涨幅居前-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Based on the rising domestic policy expectations, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin) under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Treat precious metals as a standard allocation in the short term and over - allocate them on dips after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, domestic equity markets are expected to strengthen driven by policy and fiscal front - loading expectations; treasury bonds can be observed for bull - steepening opportunities under easing expectations but with limited odds; non - ferrous metals perform relatively well under macro and industrial support; black commodities return to a weak and volatile state after the winter - storage driven rebound; crude oil is expected to be volatile and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [5]. Summary by Directory Financial Market - Stock Index Futures: Double factors boost the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on the situation of incremental funds [6]. - Stock Index Options: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on option market liquidity [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Long - end sentiment remains weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to maintain an upward trend after a volatile adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [6]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Near - term prices are supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and long - term prices are affected by the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on shipping companies' 2026 resumption arrangements, year - end long - term contract signing prices, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments on freight rates [6]. - Steel Products: Cost performance is strong, and the futures price rebounds from a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [6]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment is strong, and both futures and spot prices rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [6]. - Coke: There are limited fundamental changes, and the futures price shows a pattern of weak first and then strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Auction prices rise and fall, and most commodities rise at night. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - Silicomanganese: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel procurement prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - Glass: Commodity sentiment warms up, and the valuation premium recovers. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on spot sales [6]. - Soda Ash: There are limited fundamental changes, and sentiment drives the valuation to recover. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [6]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected delays in ore复产, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - Aluminum: Mozal Aluminum Plant faces shutdown, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - Lead: The downstream's willingness to take delivery improves, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - Nickel: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices rebound. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [6]. - Tin: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on the expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected over - recovery of supply and policy changes [6]. - Polysilicon: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected over - recovery of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - Lithium Carbonate: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices fluctuate under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical situations continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - LPG: The strong reality is facing challenges, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - Asphalt: The US is dealing with Venezuelan - sanctioned crude oil, and asphalt futures prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is a decline, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The situation in Venezuela is under control, and fuel oil futures prices fall. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate and fall. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on crude oil prices [8]. - Methanol: The situation in the Middle East is turbulent, and methanol prices rise strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - Urea: New orders are actively traded, and the announcement of the Indian tender boosts sentiment. Urea prices are stable and slightly strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: Geopolitical instability brings uncertainties to the supply side. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on coal and oil price fluctuations and port inventory rhythms [8]. - PX: Geopolitics boosts international oil prices, providing cost support. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and refining unit disruptions [8]. - PTA: Cost support combined with strong chemical sentiment strengthens the price support at the bottom. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and insufficient downstream polyester load support [8]. - Short - Fiber: Cost provides some support, but demand sustainability is insufficient, and profits are under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - Bottle Chips: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and shipping costs [8]. - Propylene: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [8]. - PP: Maintenance increases, and PP prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [8]. - Plastic: The basis is weak, and the upward space of plastic prices is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [8]. - Styrene: Exports and commodity sentiment are warm, driving styrene to fluctuate strongly recently. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [8]. - PVC: Supply disruptions occur frequently, and PVC prices rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - Caustic Soda: Market sentiment is positive, driving caustic soda prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats fluctuate, with soybean oil being relatively strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - Protein Meal: The market trading is active, and double - meal prices continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on customs policies, South American weather, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - Corn/Starch: The rotation purchase restarts, and prices fluctuate within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [8]. - Pigs: The slaughter rhythm slows down at the beginning of the month, and spot prices rebound slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - Natural Rubber: Capital sentiment remains positive, and rubber prices continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - Synthetic Rubber: The futures price follows the rise of natural rubber. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations [8]. - Cotton: The upward trend continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on production and demand [8]. - Sugar: Sugar prices fluctuate and face pressure later. The short - term judgment is a volatile decline, and the focus is on imports and Northern Hemisphere production [8]. - Pulp: Capital and macro - factors dominate the market, and pulp futures prices fluctuate repeatedly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [8]. - Offset Paper: There are few fundamental changes, and the offset paper futures price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - Logs: The market warms up, and logs follow the strength of the black sector. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on shipment volume and dispatch volume [8]. Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomics - Overseas: Trump may announce the nomination of the new Fed Chairman in January. Hassett is still the most popular candidate in the market's expectation, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The short - term positive effect of the geopolitical event in Venezuela on crude oil and precious metals is expected to be limited [5]. - Domestic: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released and optimized compared with 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two - major" construction projects and the central budget - internal investment plan for 2026, with a total of about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the allocation and use of various funds. It has also approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5].