2026-01-08：五矿期货农产品早报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized. The downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited in the short - term due to reduced imported sugar supply and low prices [4] - For cotton, although the market has long expected a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, the price volatility may increase. The supply - demand relationship is balanced, and it is advisable to buy on dips [8] - For protein meal, the bottom of import costs may have been reached, and the current large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are supported by negative crushing margins. Protein meal prices follow the general upward trend of commodities [12] - For oils, the current fundamental situation is weak, but the negative soybean crushing margins provide some support. The consumption of total oils in US biodiesel may increase significantly in 2026, and oil prices may be close to the bottom [16][17] - For eggs, the short - term downside of spot prices is limited, but the upside is also restricted. It is advisable to focus on shorting after rebounds from the valuation perspective [19] - For pigs, the short - term upward logic of pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is advisable to short on rebounds in near - term off - season contracts and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts in the long - term [22] 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The closing price of the May contract was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day. Spot prices of sugar from different regions also increased [2] - Production and Sales Data: As of January, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production was 1.94 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 810,000 tons; the sugar production rate was 11.96%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.85 percentage points. Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 390,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons [3] Cotton - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to rise. The closing price of the May contract was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous trading day. The spot price index also increased [6] - Export and Inventory Data: As of December 25, the US current - year cotton export sales were 31,100 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.5193 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 232,700 tons. As of January 2, the national cotton commercial inventory was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [6] Protein Meal - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, protein meal futures prices continued to rise. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 1.26% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous trading day [10] - Export and Inventory Data: As of December 25, the US exported 1.18 million tons of soybeans in the week, with a cumulative current - year export of 27.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.85 million tons. As of January 2, the domestic sample soybean port inventory was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons [11] Oils - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, oil futures prices rebounded, except for rapeseed oil. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day [14] - Production and Inventory Data: From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month. As of January 2, the domestic three - major oils inventory was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons [15] Eggs - Market Quotes: Most egg prices in the country rose yesterday. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.08 yuan to 3.21 yuan/jin. It is expected that today's egg prices will mostly remain stable with a few increasing [18] - Supply and Demand Situation: The capacity reduction is slow, and the overall supply is large. However, the late Spring Festival leads to continued stocking sentiment [19] Pigs - Market Quotes: The domestic pig price continued to rise yesterday, but the increase narrowed. It is expected that today's pig price will be stable in some areas and slightly decline in others [21] - Supply and Demand Situation: Low prices stimulate consumption, the late Spring Festival leads to postponed demand, and the structural shortage of large pigs has contributed to the unexpected rebound of pig prices [22]