格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The 12 - month Chinese manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, while the service industry business activity index remained below the boom - bust line. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The stock market showed a slight increase, and there was an obvious stock - bond seesaw between treasury bond futures and stocks. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and the impact of the stock market should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower, rose in the morning to recover losses, and fell back in the afternoon, especially after the stock index closed up. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.44%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] Important Information - Open Market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 286 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 528.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 500.2 billion yuan [1] - Funds Market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.27%, up from 1.26% the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.46%, up from 1.43% the previous trading day [1] - Cash Bond Market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly rose compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 4.00 BP to 1.44%, the 5 - year rose 0.81 BP to 1.67%, the 10 - year rose 1.90 BP to 1.90%, and the 30 - year rose 2.41 BP to 2.33% [1] - Central Bank Operations: The central bank announced that on January 8, it would conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months (90 days) through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On January 8, 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured, and the central bank's equal - amount operation fully offset the maturity [1] - US Economic Data: The US ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than the expected 50,000 and up from a decrease of 32,000 in the previous value. The number of JOLTS job openings in November decreased from 7.45 million to 7.146 million, significantly lower than expected. The ratio of job openings per unemployed person dropped to 0.9, the lowest level since March 2021 and below 1.0 for the first time in four years. The number of hires dropped to the lowest level since mid - 2024. The US ISM services PMI in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024 [1] - EU Economic Data: According to the preliminary data released by Eurostat on Wednesday, the consumer price index (CPI) in December increased by 2% year - on - year, lower than the previous value of 2.1%, in line with economists' expectations. The core inflation rate slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4% [1][2] Market Logic - The Chinese manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%. The service industry business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line. The 2026 central bank work conference emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain ample liquidity. In December 2025, the central bank net - injected 5 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading operations, for the third consecutive month. On Wednesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed with a doji, rising 0.19% compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2.88 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 2.83 trillion yuan. There was an obvious stock - bond seesaw between treasury bond futures and stocks [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]