Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement in economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. - For precious metals, they may face short - term significant corrections in January 2026 due to the Fed's "holding steady", but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to maintain high - level operation or wide - range fluctuations, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, and cost changes [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, the commodity market has a strong bullish sentiment, but the black series is still in the bottom - range oscillation stage. Attention should be paid to policy changes and marginal news [31]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different investment strategies. For example, rubber can be traded neutrally or on the sidelines; oil prices can be traded in a range, and short - term waiting is recommended [52][54]. - For agricultural products, the short - term price of live pigs may be strong, but the medium - term support logic may collapse; the price of eggs has limited upside and downside space; the prices of other agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [77][79]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Market Information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued relevant policies to support the development of artificial intelligence and manufacturing. There was a large sell - order in the closing call auction of CITIC Securities, and the number of job vacancies in the US in November dropped to the lowest level in more than a year [2]. - Basis Ratio: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - Strategy: Adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of going long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation, and the foreign exchange reserve increased at the end of December 2025. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 5002 billion yuan on Wednesday [5]. - Strategy: The bond market may face pressure due to improved economic expectations, but the funds are expected to be stable. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver decreased. The US employment data was weaker than expected, but the increase in precious metal prices was limited. The market is concerned about the risk of a decline in silver prices [7]. - Strategy: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January 2026, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The price of copper oscillated and adjusted. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot was at a discount [10]. - Strategy: The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, supported by supply and policy expectations [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: The price of aluminum declined after rising. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - Strategy: The aluminum price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by low overseas inventory and supply disturbances [13]. Zinc - Market Information: The price of zinc increased slightly. The domestic and LME inventories and other data are provided [14][15]. - Strategy: The zinc price is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the medium term and be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - Market Information: The price of lead increased. The domestic social inventory increased, and other data are provided [17]. - Strategy: The high sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector may drive the lead price to break through the upper limit of the oscillation range [17]. Nickel - Market Information: The price of nickel increased significantly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron increased [18]. - Strategy: The short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Tin - Market Information: The price of tin increased. The supply was stable at a high level, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory increased [19]. - Strategy: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The price of carbonate lithium increased. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased, and the new energy vehicle sales data is provided [21]. - Strategy: The price of carbonate lithium is rising, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light position [21]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina increased. The spot was at a discount, and the inventory remained unchanged [22][23]. - Strategy: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. If there is no actual production cut, short positions can be established at high prices [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The price of stainless steel increased. The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased [25]. - Strategy: The price of stainless steel is rising, but the spot trading is inactive. It is recommended to operate with caution [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading volume was high [27]. - Strategy: The price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by cost and supply disturbances [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to decline [30]. - Strategy: The price of finished products increased driven by raw materials. The black series is in the bottom - range oscillation stage, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of iron ore increased. The spot price and basis data are provided [32]. - Strategy: The iron ore price continued to rise. The supply decreased, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: The price of glass increased. The inventory decreased, and the number of long and short positions increased [34]. - Strategy: The glass price increased due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak, and the upward space is limited [35]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: The price of soda ash increased significantly. The inventory decreased, and the number of long positions decreased while the number of short positions increased [36]. - Strategy: The soda ash price rose strongly driven by market sentiment, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to operate with caution [37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. The spot prices and basis data are provided [38]. - Strategy: The market sentiment is positive, but the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and the supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Pay attention to the influence of market sentiment and cost factors [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The inventory of the weighted contract increased, and the spot price remained unchanged [43]. - Strategy: The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate [44]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of the weighted contract decreased, and the spot price remained unchanged [45]. - Strategy: The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the inventory is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price showed a weakening trend. The bullish and bearish views are different, and the tire production rate decreased slightly [49][50][51]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral strategy, trade short - term, or stay on the sidelines. Consider partial position - building for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The prices of INE crude oil and related refined oil products decreased. The gasoline and fuel oil inventories in the port decreased, while the diesel inventory increased [53]. - Strategy: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Adopt a range - trading strategy and wait for the verification of OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [55]. - Strategy: The valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of going long on dips [56]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot prices of urea changed, and the main contract price increased [57]. - Strategy: The fundamental of urea is expected to be bearish. Take profit at high prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. The basis and profit data are provided [59]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [60]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC increased. The cost, production rate, and inventory data are provided [61]. - Strategy: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The production rate, inventory, and profit data are provided [63]. - Strategy: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The valuation may be compressed in the medium term [65]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA remained unchanged. The production rate, inventory, and processing fee data are provided [66]. - Strategy: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term [67]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: The price of para - xylene decreased. The production rate, inventory, and valuation data are provided [68]. - Strategy: PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE increased. The production rate, inventory, and basis data are provided [70][71]. - Strategy: The price of PE may be supported. Consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP increased. The production rate, inventory, and basis data are provided [73]. - Strategy: The price of PP may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The price of live pigs continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. The downstream procurement enthusiasm decreased [76]. - Strategy: The short - term price of live pigs is strong, but the medium - term support logic may collapse. Consider shorting on the rebound [77]. Eggs - Market Information: The price of eggs mostly increased. The supply was normal, and the market digestion speed was stable [78]. - Strategy: The price of eggs has limited upside and downside space. Consider shorting on the rebound [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures increased. The export and inventory data of soybeans are provided [80][81]. - Strategy: The prices of protein meals increased with the overall rise of commodity prices. The import cost has a bottom, and the inventory is large [81]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The prices of oils and fats futures rebounded. The production and inventory data of palm oil are provided [82][83]. - Strategy: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the price may be close to the bottom range. The long - term expectation is optimistic [83]. Sugar - Market Information: The price of sugar futures was strong. The production and sales data of sugar are provided [84][85]. - Strategy: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space [86]. Cotton - Market Information: The price of cotton futures increased. The export and inventory data of cotton are provided [87]. - Strategy: The supply - demand of cotton is balanced, and it is recommended to go long on dips [88].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026-01-08-20260108
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-08 01:58