国新国证期货早报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 7, 2026, the A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 14 consecutive daily gains, while the CSI 300 index adjusted. Different futures varieties also had diverse price trends, influenced by various factors such as supply - demand, international market conditions, and macro - economic situations [1][2] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4085.77, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to 14030.56, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31% to 3329.69. The trading volume of the two markets reached 28,818 billion yuan, an increase of 492 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4776.67, down 14.03 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 7, the coke weighted index closed at 1774.5, up 131.6. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1165.8 yuan, up 87.3. Coke inventory turned to slight destocking. The price drivers include winter - storage replenishment demand and South American macro - situation changes. Coking coal supply decreased, coke supply slightly increased, demand improved with the resumption of hot - metal production, and inventory changes varied [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of the Brazilian real and other factors, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on Wednesday. As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan had produced 39.23 million tons of sugar with a production rate of 11.34%, and sold 28.14 million tons with a sales rate of 71.72%. Guangxi had produced 194.19 million tons of mixed sugar, sold 88.48 million tons, with a sales rate of 45.56% [4] Rubber - Due to concerns about wet weather in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, Southeast Asian spot prices continued to rise. Shanghai rubber rose on Wednesday and adjusted at night. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a 16% month - on - month decrease and a 13% year - on - year increase [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 7, CBOT soybean futures rose. Exporters sold 336,000 tons of US soybeans to China. Brazil is expected to have a bumper harvest, and its December soybean exports increased 69% year - on - year. Domestically, the M2605 contract rose 1.26% to 2811 yuan/ton. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11,785 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The supply pressure at the beginning of January decreased, but there was still a possibility of early slaughter before the Spring Festival. The demand was strong, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improved, but the long - term supply pressure remained [5] Palm Oil - On January 7, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate within a range and closed slightly higher. The main contract P2605 closed at 8562, up 0.73%. Malaysia's palm oil production in December was estimated to decrease 4.64% to 1.84 million tons [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened at 104,480 yuan/ton, closed at 103,410 yuan/ton, with a high of 105,500 yuan/ton and a low of 102,330 yuan/ton. It rose 0.11%. The core drivers included supply disruptions, low TC/RC, Fed rate - cut expectations, and rising domestic PMI, but high prices inhibited consumption, and inventory increased [5] Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,870 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 225 lots. The new import tariff quota policy boosted the domestic imported cotton market, and the sales of bonded cotton at ports increased [6] Iron Ore - On January 7, the iron ore 2605 main contract rose 4.09% to close at 828 yuan. The global iron ore shipment was high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. With the improvement of steel - mill profitability and the end of blast - furnace maintenance, the iron - water output was expected to rise, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On January 7, the asphalt 2602 main contract fell 0.13% to close at 3151 yuan. The supply of asphalt from local refineries in January was expected to decrease, and the South American geopolitical situation increased the uncertainty of raw - material supply. With weak downstream demand, the short - term price was volatile [6] Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 776, closed at 782, with a daily increase of 961 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to spot - end support, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7] Steel - On January 7, rb2605 was at 3187 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was at 3332 yuan/ton. The cost of steel decreased slightly, and some steel mills resumed production. With the increase in coke and iron ore futures, the short - term steel price rebounded, but the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season might limit the rebound space [7] Alumina - On January 7, ao2605 was at 2938 yuan/ton. The spot market trading volume increased. Enterprises might have a stronger willingness to cut production, and the production - cut expectation would support the price to stabilize and fluctuate [7] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 7, al2602 was at 24,360 yuan/ton. The macro - situation was positive, and the non - ferrous metals continued to rise. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulation slowed down, and the demand improved slightly [8]