Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market shows an upward trend despite fluctuations, with the market expected to continue to rise. The bond market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the commodity market has different trends in various sectors [20][21][24]. - Different sectors in the agricultural market, such as protein meal, sugar, and oils, have their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, protein meal is under supply pressure, while sugar is affected by international and domestic supply and demand and cost factors [27][28][32]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are oscillating strongly, while double - coking coal prices are volatile, and iron ore prices are treated bearishly at high levels [56][60][62]. - The non - ferrous metal market has different trends for each metal. For instance, gold and silver are oscillating at high levels, and copper is recommended to be bought after a callback and stabilization [70][71][79]. - The shipping market shows signs of the spot price reaching the top, and the energy - chemical market has different trends for each product, such as the oil price oscillating weakly and the asphalt price being firm [118][120][124]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures market is volatile, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes performing strongly. The market is expected to continue to rise, and trading strategies include going long on dips, waiting for the spread of the IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage, and using bull spreads [20][21][22]. Bond Futures - Bond futures closed down on Wednesday. The bond market is expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as the low probability of central bank interest rate cuts and concerns about long - term bond supply and demand. The trading strategy is to sell short for hedging [24][25]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The international soybean market is under cost pressure, but the decline may be limited. The domestic soybean supply may decrease, and the spot price may be supported. The trading strategy is to oscillate mainly, reduce the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. Sugar - The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is slightly strong. The trading strategy is to expect the international sugar price to oscillate at the bottom, and the Zhengzhou sugar price to be slightly strong in the short - term, and to sell put options [30][32][33]. Oils - The oils market has improved sentiment, but the fundamentals are still weak. The trading strategy is for palm oil to go short at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and for soybean oil to follow the overall trend [35][36]. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on dips and expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch [37][40]. Live Pigs - The supply pressure of live pigs still exists, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The trading strategy is to short sell [41][42]. Peanuts - Peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The trading strategy is to go long on the 05 contract on dips and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [43][44][45]. Eggs - Egg demand has improved, and prices are rising steadily. The trading strategy is to expect the near - term contract to oscillate weakly and consider going long on the far - term 5 - month contract on dips [46][48][49]. Apples - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level due to high costs and good demand during the Spring Festival. The trading strategy is to hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract [50][51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new - year cotton planting area is expected to decline, and the price is oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to expect the US cotton to oscillate in the range and the Zhengzhou cotton to be strongly oscillating in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals Steel - Steel market sentiment has improved, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and consider shorting the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread [56][57]. Double - Coking Coal - Double - coking coal prices are volatile, and long positions are recommended to be gradually closed. The trading strategy is to gradually close long positions and not to chase the market [60][61]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to be bearish at high levels due to repeated market expectations. The trading strategy is to short at high levels [62][64][66]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term due to supply - demand improvement and cost - push. The trading strategy is to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Gold and silver are oscillating at high levels due to the adjustment of the Bloomberg index. The trading strategy is to hold long positions cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average [70][71][72]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum and palladium are oscillating. Platinum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, and palladium is recommended to wait and see. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum on dips and consider the long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [74][75][76]. Copper - Copper prices have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to buy after a callback and stabilization. The trading strategy is to control the position and buy after a callback [79][80]. Alumina - Alumina price fluctuations are enlarged due to policy expectations and fundamental contradictions. The trading strategy is to wait and see [81][83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Electrolytic aluminum prices may have a short - term callback risk due to capital rotation. The trading strategy is to be bullish after a stabilization [85][87]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices oscillate with the sector. The trading strategy is to wait and see [88][90]. Zinc - Zinc prices are affected by the capital side. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector and gradually close long positions [93][94]. Lead - Lead prices are recommended to be bought on dips. The trading strategy is to go long on dips and buy out - of - the - money call options [96][97][98]. Nickel - Nickel prices have returned to the financial attribute due to resource speculation. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously after an over - rise and correction [100][101][102]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices follow the nickel price and are weak. The trading strategy is to follow the nickel price [104][105]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are strongly oscillating in the short - term and are recommended to be shorted at high levels in the medium - term. The trading strategy is to be strongly oscillating in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term [107][109][110]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices may weaken with the market sentiment. The trading strategy is to participate cautiously and sell put options [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are still at a high level after a correction. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously and control the position [112][114]. Tin - Tin prices have increased short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to oscillate widely at a high level in the short - term [115][116]. Shipping Container Shipping - Spot container shipping prices show signs of reaching the top, and the main contract is gradually shifting positions. The trading strategy is to close all long positions in the EC2602 contract and wait and see, and look for opportunities for the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [117][118]. Energy - Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil supply has no risk for the time being, and prices are oscillating weakly. The trading strategy is to oscillate widely, with gasoline being strong and diesel being weak in China, and the crude oil monthly spread being strong [120][121][122]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are firm due to raw material concerns. The trading strategy is to oscillate at a high level [123][124][125]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices are volatile due to frequent geopolitical disturbances. The trading strategy is to oscillate strongly in the short - term, be vigilant about geopolitical risks, and look for opportunities for the FU59 positive spread arbitrage [127][129][130]. Natural Gas - TTF/JKM prices are oscillating at a low level, and HH is looking for support. The trading strategy is to hold short positions in the TTF third - quarter contract [131][132][133]. LPG - LPG prices are under pressure despite the geopolitical premium. The trading strategy is to be bearish on the far - term contracts in the long - term and pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event [134][135][137]. PX&PTA - The upward drive of PX&PTA prices is weakening. The trading strategy is to oscillate strongly and conduct the 3 - 5 contract positive spread arbitrage [138][139]. BZ&EB - Pure benzene is accumulating inventory, and the supply - demand contradiction of styrene is not significant. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short - term and conduct the short - pure - benzene and long - styrene arbitrage [140][141][143]. Ethylene Glycol - Taiwan's ethylene glycol plants stopped at the beginning of the month, and prices are expected to oscillate widely. The trading strategy is to oscillate widely [144][145]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber procurement sentiment is cautious, and processing fees are under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate strongly [146][147]. Bottle Chips - Bottle chip prices follow the cost side and have a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate strongly [148][149][150]. Propylene - Propane prices have increased, and downstream factories are actively purchasing. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short - term [151][152]. Plastic PP - Domestic medium - and long - term loans are increasing, which is beneficial to plastic PP. The trading strategy is to hold long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts and sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract [153][154]. Caustic Soda - The sentiment of the caustic soda market has improved, but the fundamentals are weak. The trading strategy is to wait and see and short on rallies [156]. PVC - PVC prices are mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see and short on rallies [157][160][161]. Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are strong under the influence of sentiment. The trading strategy is to not go against the sentiment in the short - term and wait and see to short in the long - term [162][163][165]. Glass - Glass prices are strong under the influence of sentiment. The trading strategy is to not go against the sentiment in the short - term and wait and see to short in the long - term [166][167]. Methanol - Methanol prices are having a short - term correction. The trading strategy is to oscillate strongly [170][171]. Urea - Urea prices are oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to hold long positions, pay attention to the 59 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options on a callback [173][174][175]. Pulp - Pulp prices are oscillating widely at a high level. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short against the previous high [177][179][180]. Logs - The price of 6 - meter radiata pine is slightly strengthening. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy a small amount of long positions and look for opportunities for the 3 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [182][183][184]. Offset Printing Paper - High inventory suppresses the implementation of the cultural paper price increase letter. The trading strategy is to wait and see and sell the OP2603 - C - 4300 option [185][186]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The real - estate market has improved, which is beneficial to natural rubber. The trading strategy is to wait and see for the RU 05 contract, hold long positions in the NR 03 contract, and conduct the RU2605 - NR2605 arbitrage [187][188][189]. Butadiene Rubber - Butadiene rubber prices are rising. The trading strategy is to hold long positions in the BR 03 contract and conduct the BR2603 - NR2603 arbitrage [190][191][192].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20260108
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-08 01:53