Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-08 01:55Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - On the night of January 7th, the JM05 contract of coking coal futures jumped up by 6.95% to 1,215 yuan/ton, mainly due to the rising market risk - preference, the rotation of futures and stocks, and the fundamentals and futures market conditions [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Reasons for the sharp rise in coking coal futures - The Shanghai Composite Index (000001) breaking through a ten - year high indicates that the overall market risk preference is rising [1] - After the bulls in the futures market have snapped up various metals, they noticed that coking coal futures hadn't risen [1] - The sharp rise of stocks in the non - ferrous sector and the rise of the CSI Coal Index (399998) by 3.73% show the rotation of stock sectors and the linkage between futures and stocks [1] Fundamentals and futures market conditions - The inventory of Qinhuangdao thermal coal has decreased from 7.37 million tons on December 22nd, 25 to 5.25 million tons on January 7th, and the CCTD Bohai Rim 5500 - calorie thermal coal index has found support at 680 yuan/ton [2] - The first - quarter long - term contract price of imported Mongolian coal is about 66 - 69 US dollars, equivalent to 800 - 830 yuan/ton in the spot market and 920 - 950 yuan/ton in the futures market [2] - On January 3rd, the JM futures increased positions by 53,000 contracts, and the small decline of 34.5 yuan at the close indicates that the resistance to long - position trading is the smallest, and the potential upward price movement (300 yuan) is greater than the downward movement (100 yuan) [2] Policy analysis - Policies such as the over - production inspection in July 25 and the capacity verification of coal - supply guarantee mines in Shaanxi in 26 do not conflict with the increase in coal production [2]