贵金属：白银现货驱动明显，价格波幅增大

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Benefiting from the tightness of the spot market and the driving force of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, precious metal prices have been extremely strong recently. Silver still has room to strengthen in 2026, but in the first quarter, the Fed's monetary policy will slow down the rate - cut amplitude due to Powell's tenure, and there are certain negative factors at the macro - level. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of long - allocation after the silver price experiences a periodic correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Silver Spot Driving Force Will Continue in the First Quarter of This Year - In 2025, the London silver price rose by 146.5%, reaching a historical high of $83.62 per ounce. The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased from 26,050.7 tons to 29,362.5 tons, an increase of 3,311.8 tons, accounting for 10.35% of the annual silver output. The increase in ETF holdings led to a significant increase in spot demand, driving up the silver price. As of January 7, 2026, the silver spot premium reached 140 yuan per kilogram, and the overseas silver spot one - month implied lease rate was at a relatively high level [4]. - India's new silver mortgage loan regulations will be officially implemented on April 1, 2026. At the beginning of the year, the Indian silver premium has recovered. In October 2025, India's monthly silver import volume reached 1,785 tons, which was an important driving factor for the tightness of the London silver spot. It is expected that India's silver imports will support the demand side in the first quarter [5]. II. The Macro - environment in the First Quarter Will Have a Negative Impact on Precious Metals at High Prices, and Wait for Buying Opportunities after Price Corrections - The acceleration of the silver price has fully reflected the expected monetary policy of Hassett or Warsh's tenure. In the first quarter of 2026, the Fed under Powell's leadership will significantly slow down the pace of easing. The Fed's monetary policy stance is expected to tighten marginally, which is a negative factor for precious metal prices [15]. - The CME has raised the margin level for precious metal trading twice in the week of December 31. Similar margin increases in 2011 led to a significant decline in the silver price after it reached a historical high. Precious metals may face suppression in January 2026 and experience a short - term correction. However, this does not mean the end of the current precious metal bull cycle. The Trump administration has the motivation to further expand fiscal policy, and the Fed will enter a more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell leaves office. It is recommended to wait for a periodic correction and then allocate long positions [16].