股强债弱格局延续

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds continues. Stock index futures are in a state of oscillation, but the upward trend remains unchanged in the medium - term. Stock index options maintain high volatility and sentiment. Treasury bond futures continue to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Stock Index Futures: The upward momentum of the equity market slowed down on Wednesday. The main indexes were mostly in the positive territory, but the gains were significantly smaller than those on Monday and Tuesday. The trading volume was 2.88 trillion, with a slight increase. The number of limit - up stocks decreased to 97. There are signs that the upward movement may slow down in the short - term, but it is still in the early stage of an upward trend in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold IC. The outlook is oscillatory and bullish [1][7]. - Stock Index Options: The underlying market fluctuated intraday. The Shanghai Composite Index barely closed in the positive territory. The CSI 500 and Science and Technology Innovation Board remained strong, while other varieties declined slightly. The trading volume of the options market was 116.16 billion yuan, a 16.75% increase from the previous day. Volatility and sentiment remained high. It is recommended to buy call options or use bull spreads. The outlook is oscillatory [2][7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures fell across the board. The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation to inject medium - term liquidity. In the long - term, it is difficult to start a trend - based interest rate market. Institutions can play for rebounds, but a reversal still needs to wait. Trend strategy is oscillatory; hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; basis strategy is to appropriately pay attention to basis widening; curve strategy is that the curve may remain steep. The outlook is oscillatory [3][7][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It includes economic data such as China's December SPGI Services PMI, China's December foreign exchange reserves, the US December ADP employment change, and more, along with their previous values, predicted values, and some announced values [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Geopolitics: The US plan to obtain 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil violates international law and Venezuela's sovereignty. China - Venezuela cooperation is protected by international law [11]. - Central Bank: The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on January 8, 2026, to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [11]. - Artificial Intelligence: Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". By 2027, China aims to achieve a series of goals in AI - related manufacturing fields [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the text [13][17][29].