螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡，热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The hot - rolled coil market is affected by market sentiment, with the futures price showing a strong upward trend. The trend strength of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is rated as "1", indicating a relatively neutral - to - strong trend [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - For the RB2605 rebar futures, the closing price was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.87% from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,937,222 lots, and the open interest was 1,741,383 lots, an increase of 178,435 lots [2] - For the HC2605 hot - rolled coil futures, the closing price was 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%. The trading volume was 943,506 lots, and the open interest was 1,377,887 lots, an increase of 103,802 lots [2] Spot Market - In different regions, rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices all increased compared to the previous day, with increases ranging from 30 to 50 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,950 yuan/ton [2] Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 133 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 decreased by 29 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton [2] - The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 decreased by 28 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 10 yuan/ton to 33 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270,000 tons or 3.6%, a decrease of 1.12 million tons or 13.4% compared to late November, and an increase of 620,000 tons or 9.4% compared to the same period of the previous year [3] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 31, in terms of production, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,700 tons, and the total production of the five major varieties increased by 183,600 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 122,200 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 62,600 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 258,400 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar demand decreased by 22,400 tons, hot - rolled coil demand increased by 37,300 tons, and the total demand increased by 74,100 tons [3][4] - In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.45 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.845 million tons, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; 16.81 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.681 million tons, a 1.9% decrease; and 18.03 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 1.803 million tons, a 1.4% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.01 million tons, an increase of 1.26 million tons or 8.6% from the previous ten - day period [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - In October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons or 8.2%, with an average price of $1,593/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $31.1/ton or 1.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 680,000 tons or 11.9% [4]