铂钯波动剧烈，短线维持谨慎

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the outer - market prices of platinum and palladium dropped significantly in the afternoon, and the inner - market prices showed a differentiated trend. The closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 598.5 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 2.47%, while the palladium price was relatively stronger, with the GFEX palladium main contract closing at 475.95 yuan/gram, a rise of + 1.71% [1] - The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations. The palladium price is also expected to be strong in a volatile manner due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - Price Performance and Influencing Factors: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and the platinum price was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 7, the premium of the domestic closing time of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 21.4 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference significantly converged [2] - Supply and Demand: The main supply country, South Africa, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [2] - Outlook and Strategies: The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate widely, and investors should trade cautiously. They can consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage strategies, wait for the internal - external price difference to widen again for internal - external positive arbitrage. Also, wait for the platinum - palladium price difference to converge for long - platinum and short - palladium operations [2] Palladium - Price Performance and Influencing Factors: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce's investigation into the import of unforged palladium from Russia has led to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Demand shows significant structural pressure [3] - Outlook and Strategies: The palladium price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. In the short term, price fluctuations are intensified, and investors should trade cautiously. For arbitrage strategies, take profits on internal - external positive arbitrage and consider long - platinum and short - palladium operations [3] Commodity Index - Specialty Index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [50] - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metal index on January 7, 2026, closed at 2846.27, up 0.27% for the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [51]