甲醇：震荡回落

Group 1: Report's Overall Rating and Core View - The investment rating of the methanol industry is "Oscillating and Declining" [1] - The core view is that the domestic methanol market continues regional adjustment. After the futures oscillate at a high level and decline, there is a slight rebound. Coastal ports accumulate inventory as expected, the near - end follows demand, and the basis weakens. Due to poor MTO profits, the operation dynamics of some projects need to be closely monitored. The follow - up situation in the inland market is okay in the morning, but the actual buying and reselling sentiment weakens again as the market declines, and the trading is in a weak stalemate in the afternoon [4] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The closing price of methanol's main 05 - contract is 2,267 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price is 2,280 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the trading volume is 1,857,665 lots, an increase of 251,745 lots; the open interest is 818,847 lots, a decrease of 5,689 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,205 tons, unchanged; the trading volume in ten thousand yuan is 4,234,878, an increase of 599,234 [2] - The basis is 6, an increase of 31; the spread between MA01 and MA05 is - 32, a decrease of 7 [2] Spot Market - The price in Inner Mongolia is 1,835 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi is 1,870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in Shandong is 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Group 3: Spot News - The methanol spot price index is 2003.94, down 4.02. Among them, the Taicang spot price is 2,273, up 8; the northern Inner Mongolia price is 1,842.5, down 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 3 cities have different degrees of decline, with a decline range of 7.5 - 20 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 153.72 million tons, an increase of 4.08 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. This week, the methanol port inventory continues to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The visible foreign vessel unloading within the cycle is 22.71 million tons. The pick - up in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remains robust. The opening of the inland delivery space leads to weak shipments in the coastal side - warehouses. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrive at ports intensively, and the inventory accumulates significantly with stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreases slightly this week. In Guangdong, there is a small amount of imported and domestic trade vessel replenishment within the cycle. Affected by holidays, the pick - up volume in the main storage areas decreases, and the inventory fluctuates little. In Fujian, there are no vessels arriving at ports this week, and the inventory shows a decline under the downstream rigid - demand consumption [4][5] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]