贵属策略报：贵?属价格?位回落，关注?银波动?险

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals prices have pulled back from high levels, with silver experiencing a larger decline than gold due to profit - taking by some investors and position adjustments before the re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Fed easing are expected to limit the downside of gold prices. Silver, which has had a large increase previously, faces high short - term volatility risks [1]. - Gold prices dropped nearly 1% during the day. Given geopolitical tensions, Fed easing expectations, and continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, the downside of gold is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the situation after the US raid on Venezuela, the weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the nomination of the new Fed chair, and upcoming economic data [5]. - International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. Along with factors similar to those of gold, attention should also be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US economic data: In December, the ADP employment was 41,000 (expected 47,000, previous - 29,000), the JOLTs job openings in November were 7.146 million (expected 7.6 million, previous 7.449 million), the December ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 (expected 52.3, previous 52.6), the October factory order monthly rate was - 1.3% (expected - 1.2%, previous 0.2%), and the October durable goods order monthly rate final value was - 2.2% (in line with expectations and previous value) [2]. - Chinese central bank's gold purchase: As of December 2025, the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, with the gold reserve reaching 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from November. The foreign exchange reserve was $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion from November, rising for the 5th consecutive month [2]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment: Starting from January 9, 2026, the flat - today trading fee of the silver futures AG2604 contract will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount. The trading margin ratio, daily price limit, and trading limit of some silver futures contracts will also be adjusted [3]. - Geopolitical event: On January 6, the US White House Press Secretary said that President Trump and his team are discussing "a series of options" to obtain Greenland, including "using the US military" [3]. Price Logic - Gold: The decline in gold prices during the day was nearly 1%. Given the weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the central bank, geopolitical tensions, and Fed easing expectations, the downside of gold prices is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls report on Friday [5]. - Silver: International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. In addition to factors similar to those of gold, attention should be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. Index Information - Special Index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [48]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on January 7, 2026, was 4030.94, with a daily decline of 0.67%, a 5 - day increase of 3.03%, a 1 - month increase of 14.46%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.40% [49].