中辉能化观点-20260107

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, natural gas, glass, soda ash [1][3][6] - Cautiously Bullish: PX/PTA, methanol, urea [3] - Bearish Rebound: LPG, L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [1][6] - Oscillating Bullish: PVC, glass [1][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors are the main drivers of price movements in the energy and chemical industries. For example, supply surplus leads to downward pressure on oil prices, while geopolitical events in South America cause short - term price rebounds [1][9]. - Cost factors play a significant role. For instance, the increase in Saudi CP contract prices boosts LPG prices in the short - term, and the weakening of oil prices affects the cost of asphalt [1][15]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations also impact prices. Seasonal off - peak demand and inventory changes influence the market, and market expectations affect trading strategies [1][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.04%, Brent down 1.72%, and SC up 0.12% [7][8]. - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical events in South America and the Middle East do not change the supply surplus situation. In the core driving factor, supply surplus during the off - peak season and increasing global crude oil inventories lead to downward pressure on oil prices [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [420 - 430] [11]. 3.2 LPG - Market Performance: On January 6, the PG main contract closed at 4195 yuan/ton, up 0.87% [14]. - Basic Logic: Saudi's increase in the latest CP contract price boosts gas prices in the short - term. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and faces upward pressure. Supply increases with rising refinery starts, and downstream chemical demand provides some support [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. 3.3 L - Market Performance: The L05 closing price was 6579 yuan/ton, up 2.0% [17]. - Basic Logic: Short - term expectations dominate the market. The shutdown ratio rises, and the weighted gross profit of LL is compressed. However, the supply is still sufficient. The demand for shed films weakens, and there is pressure to reduce inventory [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of L [6500 - 6750] [19]. 3.4 PP - Market Performance: The PP05 closing price was 6423 yuan/ton, up 1.5% [21]. - Basic Logic: The intensification of maintenance reduces short - term supply pressure. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. The commercial total inventory is decreasing at a high level, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6550] [23]. 3.5 PVC - Market Performance: The V05 closing price was 4919 yuan/ton, up 3.3% [25]. - Basic Logic: The market trades on the Shaanxi differential electricity price notice, and calcium carbide is expected to strengthen. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support strengthens, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be bullish in the short - term and pay attention to inventory changes. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 5000] [27]. 3.6 PTA - Market Performance: As of December 31, TA05 closed at 5110 yuan/ton [29]. - Basic Logic: Valuation has improved, and processing fees and profits have increased. The supply side has some device restarts, and the demand side is currently good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5120 - 5250] [30]. 3.7 MEG - Market Performance: The EG05 closing price was 3609 yuan/ton [31]. - Basic Logic: The domestic device load has increased, and the demand is good but expected to weaken. The port inventory is rising, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers [32]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3830 - 3920] [33]. 3.8 Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract reduced positions and rose [36]. - Basic Logic: The valuation is not low. The supply side has some changes in domestic and overseas device starts, and the demand side is slightly weak. The cost support is weakly stable, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose [36]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2250 - 2349] [38]. 3.9 Urea - Market Performance: The main contract closing price was 1749 yuan/ton [42]. - Basic Logic: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has stabilized. The supply side is expected to face increasing pressure as some maintenance devices resume production. The demand side is weak in the short - term, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The domestic and overseas arbitrage window is not closed [41][42]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1800] [43]. 3.10 Natural Gas - Market Performance: On January 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.523 dollars/million British thermal units, down 2.63% [45]. - Basic Logic: The demand side enters the consumption peak season, but the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant, putting pressure on prices [46]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [46]. 3.11 Asphalt - Market Performance: On January 6, the BU main contract closed at 3144 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [49]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical events in South America lead to short - term supply disruptions of asphalt raw materials. The cost - profit situation improves, and the supply side has a decrease in production volume. The demand side is in the off - peak season, and the inventory is rising [50]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions should be cautious due to supply uncertainties. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [51]. 3.12 Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 closing price was 1092 yuan/ton, up 1.0% [53]. - Basic Logic: Short - term cold - repair expectations support the market. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak supply and demand, with declining daily melting volume and negative profits for all three processes. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [55]. 3.13 Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 closing price was 1190 yuan/ton, up 1.1% [57]. - Basic Logic: The market sentiment improves, but the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the continuous decline in the daily melting volume of float glass. The long - term supply is abundant, and the demand support is insufficient [59]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [59].