Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and it's advisable to wait and see for glass [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: Cautiously holding long positions for copper, strengthening observation for aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - Energy Chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, apple, with jujube expected to rebound from the bottom [1] - Agricultural and Livestock: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month hog contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts; current 02 egg contracts can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises; cautiously chasing highs for corn in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; near - month soybean meal to be treated strongly on dips and far - month weakly; three major oils' rebound is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, market news, and policy factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies such as long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and waiting and seeing. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Medium - long term is bullish, buy on dips. After the PMI returned to expansion in December and with strong expectations of policy front - loading at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. Currently close to the previous high, pay attention to whether it breaks through or retraces [5] - Government Bonds: Expected to move in a range. Recent positive news such as fund fee regulations and bank EVE indicators have been quickly digested, and the current low static bond yields and high - intensity long - term bond supply do not support large - scale institutional bond purchases [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading. The core contradiction lies in the game between the strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, and it is advisable to trade on the right side of the range [7] - Rebar: Range trading. The price bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the weekly steel export data in January [7] - Glass: It's advisable to wait and see. The supply - side is expected to be positive, but the demand is weak. There are still positive drivers for the price in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Cautiously hold long positions. The price is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage. Although there is medium - long - term support on the supply side, the current price has over - reflected the positives, and there is a risk of retracement. It may maintain a high - level wide - range shock [10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation. The price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, but the fundamentals are weak. The upward pressure is large in January, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12] - Nickel: Wait and see or short on rallies. The nickel market has an overall surplus situation in the medium - long term, although there was a short - term rebound [14] - Tin: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is expected to maintain a strong - side shock [14] - Silver and Gold: Range trading. Supported by liquidity and the weakening of the US economic data, the medium - term price center of gravity moves up. For silver, hold long positions cautiously; for gold, trade in the range and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - Lithium Carbonate: Move in a range. The supply and demand are both in a state of change, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17][18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Range trading at a low level. The overall supply - demand is still weak, but the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances should be noted [18] - Caustic Soda: Temporarily wait and see. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - Styrene: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it should be viewed cautiously and weakly. Pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the medium - long term [20] - Rubber: Range trading. The cost support is strengthening, but the inventory is increasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is mixed. The price shows a strong - side shock [22] - Urea: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price fluctuates widely [23] - Methanol: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, the downstream demand is mixed, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - Polyolefins: Weakly volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited [26] - Soda Ash: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Bullish. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the current price maintains a strong - side shock [29] - Apple: Bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with slow trading [29] - Jujube: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions [30] Agricultural and Livestock - Hog: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts. The supply pressure exists in the short term, and the price is expected to be under pressure before and after the Spring Festival. The long - term price increase is limited, and hedging can be carried out on rallies [32] - Egg: Range trading. The current 02 contract can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term supply pressure still exists [36] - Corn: Weakly volatile. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for the price to rise, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing highs. In the medium - long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [39] - Soybean Meal: Range trading. The near - month 03 contract can be treated strongly on dips, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure [40] - Oils: The rebound is limited. In the short term, the fundamentals lack positive factors, and the upward momentum is insufficient. In the medium - long term, there are still some positive points [46]
2026年01月07日：期货市场交易指引-20260107
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-01-07 02:04