2026年大中华区房地产市场展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate sector in Greater China for 2026 Core Insights - 2026 will be a year of adjustment for economic structural transformation, with expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption as the main drivers for economic growth [7] - The integration of logistics and manufacturing facilities will continue to enhance the resilience and competitiveness of the supply chain in Greater China [11] - The rise of domestic retail brands and the shift from "scale expansion" to "value creation" will redefine the retail property market [10] - The demand for office spaces will be significantly driven by the TMT sector, with a focus on high-quality office environments [9] - The expansion of public REITs to include office buildings and hotels will increase investor interest in these sectors [12] Summary by Sections Macro Trends - 2026 will focus on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, shifting the development emphasis from the supply side to the demand side [14] - The transition from "investing in things" to "investing in people" will enhance consumer confidence in areas such as education, social security, and housing [14] - The high-quality development of real estate will shift from merely providing housing to ensuring quality living conditions, stabilizing market prices over the next two years [16] Hot Topics and Alternative Assets - AI-driven data centers will continue to attract investor attention, with asset management becoming increasingly important in enhancing asset value [8][22] - The emphasis on green transformation and sustainable development will significantly impact the real estate industry, with green-certified buildings gaining value [23] - The rapid development of data centers driven by AI and cloud computing will create significant growth potential in this asset class [24] Office Market - The TMT sector's demand for office space will see significant growth, with a focus on high-standard office spaces [29] - Self-use buyers will remain a crucial support for the office market, with high-growth domestic companies actively purchasing self-use spaces [30] - The availability of supporting facilities will be key to enhancing the competitiveness of office spaces [31] Retail Property Market - Domestic retail brands are emerging strongly, transitioning from aggressive growth to a focus on value creation [37] - The new generation of consumers is shifting from material satisfaction to emotional value, driving the rise of niche brands and customized services [38] - The integration of smart technology in retail will reshape consumption scenarios and enhance operational efficiency [39] Industrial Logistics Market - The integration of logistics and manufacturing will strengthen supply chain resilience and competitiveness [44] - The introduction of smart automation systems will enhance logistics efficiency amid rising labor costs [45] - The "China +1" strategy will create investment opportunities in high-quality factory spaces as some low-value production moves abroad [46] Bulk Transaction Market - The total transaction volume of commercial real estate in Greater China remained stable at RMB 268.6 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [52] - Domestic buyers dominated the market, with foreign investment at a historical low due to external market conditions [53] - The REITs market is expected to grow as the scope of C-REITs expands to include more commercial real estate sectors [54] City Markets - In Beijing, the office market is expected to face pressure from increased supply, with a projected 1.26 million square meters of new supply in 2026 [66] - The retail market in Beijing will see over 1.1 million square meters of new supply, focusing on high-quality consumer spaces [66] - In Shanghai, the office market will continue to adjust, with TMT and financial sectors being the main demand drivers [84] - Shenzhen's logistics market will benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, while the retail market will see a rise in demand for innovative commercial spaces [102]