综合晨报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The oil price is mainly in a downward trend with a loose supply - demand situation. Precious metals are affected by funds and geopolitical situations, and investors can consider participating in breakthroughs or waiting for re - entry opportunities. Various non - ferrous metals, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and financial products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and market emotions [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Energy - Crude Oil: The current market is in a pattern of supply surplus and inventory accumulation. In 2026Q1, there is significant inventory accumulation pressure. The US - Venezuela situation may lead to an increase in Venezuelan oil production and exports if sanctions are relaxed. The oil price is in a downward trend [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The market is focused on geopolitical factors. Venezuelan supply fluctuations are a short - term issue, and the expected supply recovery may increase the surplus concern. Venezuelan heavy - product supply disruptions may support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [22] - Asphalt: The northern spot price has stabilized, and the southern market shows signs of recovery. The cost may rise if the US maintains the blockade on Venezuela, but there is resistance if the raw - material risk is false [23] - Urea: The urea market is in a tight supply - demand situation in the short term. The production enterprises are reducing inventory. Although the daily output is expected to increase, the spring agricultural demand will limit the downward space [24] - Methanol: There are rumors of MTO device overhauls in East China, causing the methanol price to fall. Overseas device operation rates are low, and future imports are expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to the operation of coastal olefin devices and port inventory [25] Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals declined. The US economic data and policy adjustments affected the market. Geopolitical situations and funds are driving price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the initial jobless claims data [3] - Copper: Overnight, the copper price dropped from a high level. Domestic copper market focuses on fundamentals, and the previous option combination strategy can still be held [4] - Aluminum and Related Products: - Aluminum: Overnight, non - ferrous metals declined as a whole. The Shanghai aluminum price was boosted by funds but failed to reach a historical high. The short - term trend deviates from fundamentals, and aluminum producers can consider selling for hedging [5] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the Shanghai aluminum price trend. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost in some areas may increase. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [6] - Alumina: The domestic operating capacity remains stable, and the market is in surplus. The cash cost is expected to decrease, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the market sentiment cools down [7] - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc price is approaching a two - year high but is under pressure. The high price has a negative impact on consumption, and there is a risk of a phased correction [8] - Lead: The tax cost of recycled lead has increased, and there are still soft squeeze - out pressures. The price is facing upward pressure, but there are also concerns about inventory accumulation and price correction [9] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The Shanghai nickel price adjusted overnight. The market is in a "buy - on - rising" mode. Stainless steel exports are accelerating inventory reduction, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the short term [10] - Tin: The Shanghai tin price decreased with reduced positions. The impact of Venezuelan tin exports is limited, and selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be considered [11] - Carbonate Lithium: The lithium price is oscillating at a high level. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream has some rigid - demand purchases. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the ore price is strong [12] - Polycrystalline Silicon: The market funds are flowing out. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to high - level transactions [13] - Industrial Silicon: The price touched 9,000 yuan/ton and then fell. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is weak. The inventory has pressure, and the futures price may oscillate and correct [14] Steel and Related Products - Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil): The steel price oscillates at night. The demand for thread is weak in the off - season, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is recovering. The steel mill profit is improving, and the iron - water output is stabilizing. The steel price may remain strong in the short term [15] - Iron Ore: The iron - ore futures price oscillates. The global shipment is seasonally decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand is weak, but there is rigid - replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to high - level fluctuations [16] - Coke and Coking Coal: - Coke: The price continued to rise last night. The production is slightly decreasing, and the inventory is rising. The downstream demand is still resilient, but there is pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [17] - Coking Coal: The price continued to rise last night. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased, and the production is slightly decreasing. The overall situation is similar to that of coke, with pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [18] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: - Manganese Silicon: The price oscillates upward. The manganese ore price is rising, and the inventory has a structural problem. The demand is seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [19] - Ferrosilicon: The price oscillates upward. Affected by policies, the cost is expected to decrease. The demand is still resilient, and the supply is decreasing significantly. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [20] Chemical Products - Pure Benzene and Styrene: - Pure Benzene: The price rose slightly at night. The import is sufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [26] - Styrene: The production and sales of enterprises are stable, but the raw - material cost is weak, which suppresses the price rebound [27] - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The enterprises' sales are smooth, and the prices are rising. The downstream follows up well, but the factory's mentality is cautious [28] - PVC and Caustic Soda: - PVC: Affected by the policy, the price is rising. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large. In 2026, the production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the price center may rise [29] - Caustic Soda: The price oscillates strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand from alumina is still there, but the industry is in a loss. The rebound height may be suppressed [29] - PX and PTA: The prices of PX and PTA fell at night. The terminal demand is weak, and the polyester cash - flow is poor. The short - term external disturbances are increasing, and the PTA's main driver is the raw material [30] - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic new - device production is approaching, and the overseas device shutdowns are increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure in the long term. There may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [31] - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: - Short - Fiber: The enterprise inventory is low, but the downstream demand is weak. The price follows the raw material. Band - trading can be considered according to the production and demand rhythm [32] - Bottle - Chip: The demand turns weak, and the price follows the raw material. There is new production in the short term, and there are over - capacity problems in the long term [32] Agricultural Products - Soybean and Related Products: - Soybean and Bean Meal: The market expects the US soybean production to remain stable, and the global soybean production may decrease. South American weather is good, and the bean - meal price follows the US soybean price. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: The macro - environment affects the prices. The soybean oil performs better than the palm oil. The palm - oil inventory may continue to accumulate, and the overall market is expected to oscillate [37] - Soybean (Domestic): The domestic soybean market is boosted by the macro - environment and policy. The auction shows high premiums and high transaction rates. Attention should be paid to policies and the market [39] - Rapeseed and Related Products: The rapeseed and rapeseed - meal inventories of coastal oil mills are zero, and the rapeseed - oil inventory is decreasing. The market expects the China - Canada economic and trade relationship to improve, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [38] - Corn: The overall inventory of corn is low, and the number of vehicles at deep - processing enterprises is small. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [40] - Livestock and Poultry Products: - Pig: The pig futures oscillate, and the spot price is slightly strong. The data on the number of sows is different. There is a risk of secondary fattening, but the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the price may have a secondary bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg: The near - month egg futures are slightly strong, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. The egg - laying chicken inventory is expected to decrease in the first half of 2026. A long - position strategy for the first - half - year contracts is recommended [42] - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton price rose significantly yesterday, and the inventory is relatively low. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging, and long positions should be held with caution [43] - Sugar: The international sugar production in India is fast, while in Thailand it is slow. The domestic Guangxi sugar production is slow, but there is an expected increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar may be limited [44] - Apple: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The cold - storage sales are increasing, but the quality is poor, and the high price may affect inventory reduction [45] - Wood and Pulp: - Wood: The price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - Pulp: The pulp price fell slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the price increase is limited. The port inventory is rising, and the needle - broad price difference is narrowing. A low - buying strategy is recommended [47] Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The futures index contracts showed different trends, and all contracts were at a discount. The global risk assets are not significantly affected, and the stock index is expected to remain strong in the short term [48] - Treasury Bond: The 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal. Attention should be paid to the central bank's operations and the yield - curve trend [49]