中辉能化观点-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Oscillating bullish [1] - PX/PTA: Bullish [2] - MEG (Ethylene Glycol): Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural Gas: Bearish rebound [7] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [7] - Glass: Bearish rebound [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [7] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude Oil: Supply surplus dominates, geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but long - term pressure exists due to off - season supply surplus and OPEC+ expansion [1][8][10] - LPG: Follows the decline in oil price, with supply and demand showing some resilience [1][13] - L: Short - term market sentiment drives, supply is sufficient, and there is de - stocking pressure [1][18] - PP: Maintenance intensity increases, short - term supply pressure eases, and focus on PDH device dynamics [1][21] - PVC: Cost support is expected to strengthen, short - term bullish, focus on inventory changes [1][25] - PX/PTA: Supply - demand pattern is good, cost - driven, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][29] - MEG: Expectations are weak, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2][32] - Methanol: Supply - demand expectations improve, focus on port de - stocking speed [3][35] - Urea: Cost support and export window not closed, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [4][40] - Natural Gas: Short - term rebound due to accident, supply is abundant, and price is under pressure [7][45] - Asphalt: Pay attention to raw material imports, price has compression space but with increasing support [7][48] - Glass: Cold repair expectations support, low - level rebound [7][53] - Soda Ash: Demand weakens, returns to weakness [7][57] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices fell, WTI dropped 2.00%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.59% [8][9] - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical factors cannot change the supply surplus situation. Core driver is off - season supply surplus, and inventory is accumulating [10][11] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, buy call options for risk control. Focus on SC in the range of [410 - 420] [12] LPG - Market Review: On January 7, the PG main contract closed at 4229 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [15] - Basic Logic: Saudi Arabia raised the CP contract price, short - term boost, long - term follows oil price. Supply and demand show some resilience [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions, focus on PG in the range of [4150 - 4250] [17] L - Market Review: L05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [18] - Basic Logic: Short - term expectations drive the market, supply is sufficient, and there is de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of [6500 - 6750] [20] PP - Market Review: PP05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [22] - Basic Logic: Maintenance intensity increases, short - term supply pressure eases, and focus on PDH device dynamics [24] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6550] [24] PVC - Market Review: V05 contract price increased, with changes in basis and spreads [26] - Basic Logic: Cost support is expected to strengthen, short - term bullish, focus on inventory changes [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PTA - Market Review: TA05 contract price and related data changes [29] - Basic Logic: Supply - demand pattern is good, cost - driven, short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and there is inventory accumulation expectation in January [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on TA05 in the range of [5050 - 5185] [31] MEG - Market Review: EG05 contract price and related data changes [32] - Basic Logic: Domestic device load increases, demand is good but expectations are weak, port inventory rises, and it lacks upward drivers [33] - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, focus on EG05 in the range of [3820 - 3910] [34] Methanol - Market Review: Main contract price and related data changes [37] - Basic Logic: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but the downside is limited. Pay attention to port de - stocking speed [37][38] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on MA05 in the range of [2220 - 2290] [39] Urea - Market Review: Urea main contract price and related data changes [43] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the export window is not closed [42][43] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks for the 05 contract, focus on UR05 in the range of [1780 - 1810] [44] Natural Gas - Market Review: NG main contract price and related data changes [45][46] - Basic Logic: Short - term rebound due to accident, supply is abundant, and price is under pressure [47] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on NG in the range of [3.409 - 3.695] [47] Asphalt - Market Review: BU main contract price and related data changes [49][50] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical factors cause raw material shortage expectations, supply is decreasing, demand has a small increase, and inventory is rising [51] - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions should prevent risks, focus on BU in the range of [3100 - 3200] [52] Glass - Market Review: FG05 contract price and related data changes [54][55] - Basic Logic: Cold repair expectations support, supply - demand is weak, and focus on supply reduction [56] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on FG in the range of [1100 - 1150] [56] Soda Ash - Market Review: SA05 contract price and related data changes [58][59] - Basic Logic: Demand is weak, supply is loose in the long - term, and cold repair expectations of float glass increase [60] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on SA in the range of [1200 - 1250] [60]