Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal for short-term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is advisable to wait and see [1][8][10] - Non-ferrous Metals: Copper, hold long positions cautiously; aluminum, strengthen observation; nickel, wait and see or short on rallies; tin, range trading; gold, range trading; silver, range trading; lithium carbonate, range-bound [1][11][15][17] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, range trading; caustic soda, wait and see temporarily; soda ash, wait and see temporarily; styrene, range trading; rubber, range trading; urea, range trading; methanol, range trading; polyolefins, weak and volatile [1][19][21][25] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, expected to be slightly bullish; apples, slightly bullish; jujubes, expected to rebound from the bottom [1][27][29][30] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs, short on rallies for near-term contracts, cautiously bullish for far-term contracts; eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the current 02 contract; corn, short-term cautious about chasing highs, grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal, treat near-term contracts strongly on dips, far-term contracts weakly; oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, cautious about chasing rallies [1][31][34][36][38][39] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply and demand fundamentals and external factors [5][8][11] - For most varieties, short-term market fluctuations are relatively large, and medium- to long-term trends need to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and policy orientation [11][15][32] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: Medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips. Affected by geopolitical events and economic data at home and abroad, there are potential callback risks in the short term, but the market is expected to develop further in the long term [5] - Treasury Bonds: Expected to trade sideways. The current low static yield of bonds and high - intensity long - term bond supply make it difficult for institutions to significantly increase their bond allocations [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short-term trading. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support, with clear short - selling logic and some bullish factors [8] - Rebar: Range trading. Driven by cost and affected by policies and supply - demand relationships, short - term trading is recommended [8] - Glass: Wait and see. The supply side has positive expectations, but the demand side is weak. There are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash, and the price is expected to be short - term bullish [10] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: Cautiously hold long positions. The price has entered a high - volatility stage in the short term, but there is still upward space in the long term due to supply shortages [11] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation. The price is driven by expectations and capital, but there is great fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is limited [13] - Nickel: Wait and see or short on rallies. The market is in an oversupply situation in the long term, but there is a short - term rebound [15] - Tin: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile [15] - Gold and Silver: Range trading. Affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy, the medium - term price center moves up [17] - Lithium Carbonate: Range - bound. The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading. The supply and demand are weak in reality, but the valuation is low, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a low level [19] - Caustic Soda: Wait and see temporarily. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [21] - Soda Ash: Wait and see temporarily. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the disk is limited [27] - Styrene: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term, and pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the long term [21] - Rubber: Range trading. The cost support is strong, but the downstream buying is weak, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile [22] - Urea: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23] - Methanol: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is bullish due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - Polyolefins: Weak and volatile. The demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited, but there is a short - term rebound expectation [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Slightly bullish. Affected by factors such as global cotton supply and demand and policy expectations, the price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish [29] - Apples: Slightly bullish. The market price is relatively stable, and different regions have different trading situations [29] - Jujubes: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere varies in different regions [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: Short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the long - term supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is not optimistic before the Spring Festival [32] - Eggs: Range trading. The short - term price has a seasonal increase expectation, but the supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [34][35] - Corn: Weak and volatile. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36][37] - Soybean Meal: Range trading. The short - term domestic and foreign market conditions are complex, and different strategies are recommended for near - term and far - term contracts [38][39] - Oils: The rebound is limited. The short - term trends of the three major oils are expected to diverge, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing rallies for soybean and palm oils, and gradually liquidate long positions for rapeseed oil [39][44][45]
2026年01月08日：期货市场交易指引-20260108
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2026-01-08 02:17