黑色建材日报：原料成本推升，钢材强势向上-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is strongly rising due to the increase in raw material costs. The short - term performance of black commodities is strong, but the fundamentals need to be tested after the sentiment fades. The iron ore market is rising under the improvement of macro - sentiment, but there is a large supply - demand contradiction. The double - coking market is rising, with the demand for coke expected to improve, and the coking coal supply recovering quickly. The thermal coal market is rising due to the reduction of production capacity in the producing areas [1][3][5][8]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - Market Analysis: The steel futures and spot markets rose strongly yesterday. National building material prices generally increased by 20 - 40 yuan, and the market's enthusiasm for purchasing increased, with a national building material turnover of 12530 tons. The building materials market maintains a state of low production, low consumption, and low inventory, while the plate market is still restricted by high inventory [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: There is no contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials for the time being. After the New Year's Day, the building materials will enter the winter storage market. The plate inventory pressure still exists. In the short term, black commodities are strong, but the fundamentals need to be tested later. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of steel mills [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures market was strong yesterday. The 2605 contract of iron ore rose significantly. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream port varieties followed the upward trend of the futures, but the market trading was cold [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: There is a large supply - demand contradiction in the iron ore market, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The downstream replenishment willingness is insufficient. The market gives a high valuation to the iron ore price, but the price may face a downward risk after the negotiation. In the short term, the price is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [4]. Double - Coking - Market Analysis: The main contracts of double - coking rose significantly yesterday. The spot price of Shanxi coking coal was relatively stable, and the spot price of Mongolian coal rose to 1000 - 1010 yuan/ton. The output of 523 coal mines increased slightly yesterday, and the mine inventory increased month - on - month [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: After the New Year's Day, with the resumption of blast furnace production and the winter storage of steel mills before the Spring Festival, the demand for coke is expected to improve. The coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the inventory accumulation trend has not been alleviated. In the short term, the coal price is strong, but the change in the production - increasing capacity in the producing areas needs to be further verified [6]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [7]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the producing areas, the coal price rebounded slightly, and the demand for replenishment from local and surrounding power plants improved. The port market was relatively stable, with strong upstream quotations and weak downstream demand. The import coal market rose steadily [8]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Yulin City plans to reduce the supply - guarantee coal mines and cut the production capacity by 19 million tons. The daily consumption of thermal coal has improved, and the coal price is oscillating and strengthening. Attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - thermal coal [8].