12月金融数据前瞻（2025.12.10-2026.01.05）：部分信贷或后置至次年

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the banking sector is experiencing a continued weak demand for credit, with a projected decrease in new loans for December by approximately 270 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling around 720 billion yuan [5][13] - The anticipated new social financing scale for December is about 1.6 trillion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [6][25] - The report highlights a structural recovery in new credit, particularly in corporate loans, while consumer loan demand remains weak [20][21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the banking sector is at 4188.79, with a 52-week high of 4670.31 and a low of 3773.19 [2] Credit and Financing Data - December's new credit is expected to be around 720 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 270 billion yuan [5][13] - The new social financing scale is projected to be approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 1.2 trillion yuan [6][25] - The report notes that corporate loan demand is expected to improve slightly, while consumer loan demand remains under pressure due to weak consumer confidence [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with significant deposit maturities and potential margin improvements, specifically recommending Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [7][30] - It also advises attention to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investments, such as Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [7][30]