国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: Prices have corrected from high levels [2]. - Copper: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed [2]. - Zinc: Prices are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have fallen after reaching a high [2]. - Aluminum: Prices have slightly declined [2]. - Alumina: Prices are oscillating within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Prices are oscillating to find a direction [2]. - Palladium: Prices are maintaining an oscillating trend [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation, with wide - range oscillations [2]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the market is mainly betting on Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 984.84, down 2.22%; the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18140, down 0.35%; the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320 [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40985 kg [5]. - News: China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [5][7]. 3.2 Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,410, down 1.81%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 758,590, an increase of 114,266. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,866, down 2.93% [8]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 96,474 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons; the LME spot premium declined [8]. - News: China's copper ore imports in November 2025 increased, and there were developments in copper mines such as labor - contract negotiations in Chile and the progress of domestic copper mines [8][10]. 3.3 Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24330, up 0.14%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 187735, an increase of 10560. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3245.5, up 1.17% [11]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 40919 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [11]. - News: China's December foreign exchange reserves increased, and there were international geopolitical news such as the US' "commission - selling" of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.4 Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17830, up 1.77%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 83341, an increase of 26456. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 2071, up 2.04% [14]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 13439 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME Lead inventory was 230425 tons, a decrease of 2925 tons [14]. - News: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [15]. 3.5 Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050, up 2.93%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650, up 0.34% [17]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780 tons, a decrease of 306 tons; the LME Tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons [17]. - News: The memory market has entered a "super - bull market", and there were policies to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals [18]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24360, up 25; the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 639637, an increase of 87968. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2938, up 120; the trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 1854026, an increase of 1136372. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23035, up 40; the trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19559, an increase of 1289 [20]. - Inventory and Premium: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 8.50 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 50.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons [20]. - News: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and the ISM service industry PMI data have been released [21]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 598.50, down 2.97%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Platinum was 82,828 kg, an increase of 17,632 kg. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 475.95, up 0.86%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Palladium was 44,238 kg, an increase of 8,209 kg [23]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum was 645,366 ounces, unchanged; the inventory of NYMEX Palladium was 211,306 ounces, unchanged [23]. - News: There were international news such as Zelensky's statement on the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US' actions regarding Venezuelan oil [26]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 147,720, up 7,920; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,132,256, an increase of 393,922. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,885, up 490; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 547,902, an increase of 243,022 [27]. - Industry News: The Indonesian government has taken measures such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses and revising the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [27][28].