宝城期货甲醇早报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol futures are expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of strength. The overall trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Time - cycle View - For methanol 2605, the short - term view (within one week) is oscillation, the medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is oscillation, and the intraday view is strength, with a reference view of running strongly [1]. 3.2 Core Logic - The strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival comes from the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, a major import source, is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of domestic port methanol inventories has led to the repair of port spot prices and a stronger basis, which has boosted the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Although the methanol futures price had a slight correction on Wednesday night, the coal futures price rose significantly again. The expectation of a decline in external imports outweighs the weak real - world demand, so the domestic methanol futures are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [5].