黑色建材日报：市场情绪好转，钢价震荡运行-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are fluctuating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, with limited price volatility. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials will begin, and the game between reality and expectations will intensify. Plates are still restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. - The market sentiment for iron ore has improved, and prices are slightly fluctuating. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The price is at a high - level range in the short term but may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled [3]. - The molten iron output has slightly increased, and coking coal and coke prices are fluctuating widely. After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve, while the supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term [5][6]. - The pit - mouth coal price is adjusting, and the supply in the production area is recovering. The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The national building material prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the national building material trading volume was 96,623 tons [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have no obvious supply - demand contradictions, maintaining low production, consumption, and inventory. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will start. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated upward, and the trading volume increased significantly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Shandong ports rose slightly, with low trading volume and low procurement intention from steel mills [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The market gives a high valuation to the iron ore price, but it may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain a high - level range [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The coke market continued to be weak and stable, and the inventory pressure of upstream coke has been alleviated. The coking coal auction prices mostly continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coking coal decreased [5]. - Supply and demand logic: After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term. After the winter storage, the price may be further adjusted [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Fluctuating; Coke: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal mines are resuming production, and the pit - mouth coal price is adjusting. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the trading volume at ports is light. The import coal market is rising steadily [7]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good. After New Year's Day, the supply in the production area is gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7].