对二甲苯：短期高位震荡市PTA：高位震荡市MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term high - level volatile market [1] - PTA: High - level volatile market [1] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium - term pressure remains [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Cost support is relatively strong, hold long spreads. Supply is gradually loosening, and attention should be paid to the reduction scale caused by Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance [4] - PTA: Unilateral high - level volatile market, maintain long spreads. The PTA segment is still in continuous de - stocking [5] - MEG: The medium - term trend is still weak, conduct short spreads on the calendar spread. The supply of domestic ethylene glycol is still at a high level, and the rigid demand is declining [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - Futures Prices: PX主力昨日收盘价7336, up 126 (1.75%); PTA主力5150, up 104 (2.06%); MEG主力3838, up 106 (2.84%); PF主力6532, up 70 (1.08%); SC主力428.2, up 6.5 (1.54%) [2] - Calendar Spreads: PX5 - 9 yesterday's closing price was 112, down 12; PTA5 - 9 was 90, unchanged; MEG5 - 9 was - 86, up 4; PF12 - 1 was - 54, up 16; SC11 - 12 was - 0.7, down 2.2 [2] - Spot Prices: PX CFR China was 902.67 dollars/ton, up 19; PTA in East China was 5080 yuan/ton, up 50; MEG spot was 3680 yuan/ton, up 40; Naphtha MOPJ was 534.25 dollars/ton, up 11.75; Dated Brent was 62.91 dollars/barrel, down 0.04 [2] - Spot Processing Margins: PX - naphtha spread was 363.88, up 7.92; PTA processing margin was 361.63, up 6.66; Staple fiber processing margin was 120.64, down 21.37; Bottle chip processing margin was 43.68, down 25.41; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34, unchanged [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - Crude oil: The market is worried about the long - term oversupply pressure, and the geopolitical situation has not shown new intensification, so international oil prices have fallen [2] - PX: In the afternoon, PX negotiation prices were stalemate. May paper goods were negotiated at 903/905, and there were buy - orders for June at 900 [3] - PTA: Turkey launched an investigation at the request of local PTA producers, focusing on the sharp increase in PTA imports, industrial damage and causal relationships. No interim measures have been proposed yet, and the investigation period is generally 6 - 12 months [3] - MEG: From January 5th to January 11th, the arrival quantity in Zhangjiagang was about 6.2 tons, in Taicang Port about 7.9 tons, in Ningbo about 3.7 tons, and in Shanghai about 0 tons. The planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 17.8 tons [3] - Polyester: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately today. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 77%. The sales - to - production ratios of some factories were 80%, 80%, 60%, 90%, 80%, 60%, 100%, 30%, 80%, 30%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed individual differentiation. As of around 3:30 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be about 50% [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 [4] - PTA trend intensity: 0 [4] - MEG trend intensity: 0 [4] 3.4 Supply and Demand - PX Supply: Fushun Petrochemical's 1 million - ton PX unit was restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for startup in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate increased to 90%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance plan of Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton unit [4] - PTA Supply and Demand: The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk rose to over 300 yuan/ton. New Fengming's 2.5 million - ton Phase 1 and Zhongtai Chemical's 1.2 million - ton units were restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate will remain at around 78%. Polyester filament factories cut production, while the operation of bottle chips and staple fibers remained stable. PTA is still in de - stocking [4][5] - MEG Supply and Demand: The domestic ethylene glycol supply is still at a high level of 73.73%, and Guangxi Huayi's 200,000 - ton unit was restarted. Overseas units such as China Taiwan's Nan Ya Plastics 720,000 - ton, Kuwait's 530,000 - ton, and Iran's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance. The arrival volume this week rebounded to over 170,000 tons. The polyester unit operating rate is 90%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is declining [5]