黑色商品日报-20260107

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and outlook of various black commodities on January 7, 2026. The overall view for most commodities is a range - bound trend, with steel expected to be weakly range - bound [1]. - Steel: The rebar futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is an expectation of monetary policy easing, the increase in production and the decline in terminal demand due to cold weather may lead to increased supply - demand pressure. The short - term rebar futures are likely to be weakly range - bound [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price rose. After the year - end shipping rush, the global shipping volume decreased significantly. With the planned blast furnace inspections in steel mills, the inventory at ports is increasing. The ore price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price increased. Some coal mines resumed production, increasing the supply. Steel mills have low profits and are resistant to high - priced coal. The short - term coking coal futures are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - Coke: The futures price went up. Most coke enterprises maintained their previous production levels, and the slowdown in the price decline of some raw coal types strengthened the support for coke prices. However, there is still an expectation of a fifth - round price cut. The short - term coke futures are expected to be in wide - range oscillation [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price strengthened in an oscillatory manner. The mainstream steel procurement has no new progress, and the manganese ore price is firm, providing cost support. The inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price rose significantly. There is news of an electricity price adjustment for restricted ferro - alloy enterprises in Shaanxi. The supply in December decreased slightly but remained high. During the steel procurement period, demand is supported. The inventory is still at a high level. The short - term upside space may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Commodity | Futures Price Movement | Spot Price Movement | Supply - Demand Situation | Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel (Rebar) | The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 14,600 lots in positions | The spot price was basically stable, with the transaction volume remaining low. The price of Qian'an billets in Tangshan was flat at 2930 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhongtian rebar in the Hangzhou market was flat at 3200 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 96,600 tons | The production of hot metal and rebar increased. The latest weekly rebar production increased by 38,300 tons to 1.8822 million tons, rising for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand declined with the drop in temperature | Weakly range - bound [1] | | Iron ore | The main contract i2605 closed at 801 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.5%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and an increase of 22,000 lots in positions | The spot prices of mainstream varieties at ports increased. For example, the 60.8% PB powder in Rizhao Port rose to 806 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan | After the year - end shipping rush, the shipping volumes from Australia, Brazil, and other countries decreased, and the global shipping volume declined significantly. Steel mills have blast furnace inspection plans, and the port inventory is accumulating | Range - bound [1] | | Coking coal | The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton (1.43%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 2636 lots in positions | The price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang decreased by 40 yuan to 1410 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rose to 970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of Mongolian 3 clean coal remained unchanged at 1045 yuan/ton | Some previously shut - down coal mines resumed production, increasing the supply. Steel mills have low profits and are resistant to high - priced coal, and there is an expectation of a fifth - round price cut for coke | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Coke | The coke 2605 contract closed at 1655 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.39%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 1564 lots in positions | The spot price at ports decreased. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port was 1420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan | Most coke enterprises maintained their previous production levels, and the slowdown in the price decline of some raw coal types strengthened the support for coke prices. The blast furnace hot metal production of steel mills increased slightly, but it is the off - season for steel demand, and there is still an expectation of a fifth - round price cut | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Manganese silicon | The main contract closed at 5918 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 83 lots in positions to 269,600 lots | The northern factories' quotes for 6517 are mainly in the range of 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern factories' quotes are generally in the range of 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton | The mainstream steel procurement has no new progress. The manganese ore price is firm. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is still accumulating | Range - bound [1] | | Ferrosilicon | The main contract closed at 5776 yuan/ton, up 2.81% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 30,174 lots in positions to 257,500 lots | The ex - factory prices of ferrosilicon in major producing areas are in the range of 5200 - 5350 yuan/ton | There is news of an electricity price adjustment for restricted ferro - alloy enterprises in Shaanxi. The supply in December decreased slightly but remained high. During the steel procurement period, demand is supported, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises is gradually decreasing but still at a high level | Limited upside space, range - bound [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data such as rebar's盘面 profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various cross - commodity spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents historical price charts of the main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][11][14]. - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows historical basis charts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2026 [17][18][21][23]. - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides historical spread charts for different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 10, etc.) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - 3.3.4 Cross - commodity Contract Spreads: It includes charts of cross - commodity spreads such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc., from 2021 - 2026 [43][46][47]. - 3.3.5 Rebar Profits: The report shows historical charts of rebar's盘面 profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2021 - 2026 [49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity field [54][55].