铁矿石：货币政策预期升温，盘面注意高位风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic macro - narrative is positive with rising expectations of incremental monetary policy. The fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, there is a demand for iron ore replenishment, and supply is entering the off - season. However, the price increase is limited by the industrial chain profit. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2][3]. - The expected high - price range is 810 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - disk (FE02) price of about 105.5 - 107.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage with prices maintaining a narrow - fluctuation trend. This is because the inventory pressure at the finished - product end is continuously relieved, the industrial chain valuation rebounds, the strong spot price of iron ore supports the market, and steel mills have entered the replenishment cycle [2]. Supply - The year - end phased volume - rush of mainstream mines' shipments has ended, and the weekly shipment volume has dropped significantly. Outer - mine shipments will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, the supply - side support is getting stronger [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is continuously rising slightly. The profitability of steel mills has rebounded after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some overhauled blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. In general, domestic steel - mill demand has a short - term upward trend, and the pre - holiday replenishment cycle is about to start, with replenishment demand expected to be continuously released [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel - mill end has increased month on month, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the full - scale replenishment of US - dollar goods by steel mills will start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume, and it is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3].