工业硅、多晶硅日报-20260107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,900 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.37%, and open interest increasing by 17,319 lots to 235,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot remained stable at 9,603 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 59,365 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.69%, and open interest decreasing by 2,218 lots to 72,000 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type recycled polysilicon material was raised to 53,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 53,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,865 yuan/ton [2]. - The main production area of industrial silicon continues to shift northward. Although there are production cuts due to environmental controls, it is difficult to offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon has limited production cuts, silicone has joint production cuts, and aluminum alloy has environmental production cuts. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [2]. - Although the recent increase in battery cells has led to price increases in the photovoltaic industry chain, due to the blockage in the component link, the effect of further price increases is limited, and downstream industries have further expanded production cuts. In January, with industry self - discipline and joint production cuts in silicon materials, polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected reduction in supply, providing strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's risk control and position limits, the upward premium space is tightened. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by silicon material factories, downstream purchasing sentiment, and inventory dynamics in the industrial chain [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - Analysis of the price trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon on January 6, including futures prices, open interest changes, spot prices, and spot - futures basis. Evaluation of the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon and polysilicon, and corresponding investment suggestions [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,730 yuan/ton on January 5 to 8,900 yuan/ton on January 6, an increase of 170 yuan/ton. The prices of various spot grades of industrial silicon remained stable, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 50 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 456 to 10,687, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,750 tons to 448,400 tons [2][4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 58,645 yuan/ton on January 5 to 59,365 yuan/ton on January 6, an increase of 720 yuan/ton. The prices of various spot grades of polysilicon increased or remained stable, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,865 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 310 to 4,340, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons. The total social inventory increased by 26,000 tons to 308,000 tons [2][4]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 13,700 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades, grade spreads, regional spreads of industrial silicon, as well as electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - Inventory: Charts show the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories and inventory changes, weekly polysilicon inventories, and weekly DMC inventories [21][22][24]. - Cost and Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit [26][28][31].