碳酸锂日报（2026年1月7日）-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract hit the daily limit at 137,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 8,000 yuan/ton to 127,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 7,250 yuan/ton to 124,250 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 6,700 yuan/ton to 117,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,860 tons to 23,141 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. In January 2026, the lithium carbonate output is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. In terms of demand, in January 2026, the output of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10.03% month - on - month to 363,400 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons [3]. - There was a resonance between stocks and commodities. For lithium carbonate futures, funds are more sensitive to bullish news. Due to geopolitical and policy factors, the market is worried about the actual supply of lithium resources. If the adjustment of the industrial pricing mechanism progresses smoothly, the cathode production schedule may need to be revised upwards. The price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 137,940 yuan/ton on January 6, 2026, up 7,960 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 134,360 yuan/ton, up 7,360 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,640 US dollars/ton, up 105 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 2,475 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 127,500 yuan/ton, up 8,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 124,250 yuan/ton, up 7,250 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 117,500 yuan/ton, up 6,700 yuan [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 161,500 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan. The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of some battery cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9] 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17] 3.2.3 Spreads - Charts 11 - 22 show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., as well as the basis from 2024 to 2026 [17][18][22] 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [24][26][28] 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, lithium cobaltate battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [30][34] 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts 25 - 28 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, other links, and the production cost trends from 2024 to 2026 [36][38][41]